Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat all trend higher in Wednesday’s session.
Tune in at 10 a.m. Central time tomorrow as Ben Potter shares insights on what weather experts are sharing about the 2022 season and what it means for the growing season, and harvest.
Grain prices followed a broad range of other commodities higher on Wednesday, as the situation in Ukraine and wet weather threatening possible planting delays in the U.S. continue to lend additional support. Nearby corn contracts moved 1% higher, with soybeans finding more modest gains of around 0.4%. Wheat gains varied between 0.3% and 1%.
There’s plenty of wild weather so far this week depending on where you live, from ample rains in the Midwest to a blizzard in the Northern Plains and tornadoes in the South. Later this month, NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the Plains and western Corn Belt, along with warmer-than-normal conditions for the Central and Southern Plains between April 20 and April 26.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 270 points higher in afternoon trading to 34,491 on the heels of a set of mostly positive corporate earnings reports. Airlines and travel companies performed particularly well today. Energy futures continued to charge ahead, with crude oil up 3.5% this afternoon to $104 per barrel on worries of tightening global supplies amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Diesel jumped more than 7% higher, with gasoline up more than 4%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+8,500), soybeans (+7,500), soymeal (+2,500), soyoil (+4,000) and CBOT wheat (+11,000).
Keeping up with crop conditions and development across the country can be challenging as planting season nears, but Farm Futures is here to help. Our Feedback from the Field series is back for another year to help farmers across the country share their views on the 2022 growing season. Click here to find out how to participate – we’d love to hear from you!
Corn
Corn prices picked up moderate gains after a round of technical buying partly spurred by spillover support from other commodities, including red-hot energy prices. Worries about planting delays this spring are remain in the picture for now. May futures added 8 cents to $7.8425, with July futures up 5.75 cents to $7.7825.
Corn basis bids held steady at most Midwestern locations on Wednesday but did shift 4 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant today.
Weekly ethanol production fell below the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark for just the second time in 2022, with a daily average of 997,000 barrels for the week ending April 8, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Stocks dropped 4%, falling to the lowest levels in more than two months.
And speaking of ethanol, President Joe Biden announced yesterday a waiver extension that will allow for E15 sales throughout the summer, which is currently restricted between June 1 and September 15. “This won’t solve all our problems with fuel prices, but it will definitely help,” Biden said. “We will invest $100 billion to add more pumps to be able to sell this fuel more widespread.”
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see another big round of corn sales, with trade guesses ranging between 45.3 million and 98.4 million bushels for the week ending April 7.
Ukraine’s 2021/22 corn exports could fall more than 26% year-over-year to 669.3 million bushels, according to deputy agriculture minister Roman Rusakov. Grain is typically shipped via the country’s ports, but railways are the primary export transport after the war with Russia began.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 395,446 contracts, moving moderately above Tuesday’s final count of 339,229.
Soybeans
Soybean prices managed modest gains in a sometimes choppy session today, ultimately pushing higher thanks to spillover strength from other commodities. May futures added 7.5 cents to $16.7775, with July futures up 4.5 cents to $16.65.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after rising 5 to 10 cents higher at two Midwestern processors and falling 3 to 8 cents lower at two other locations on Wednesday.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 14.7 million and 55.1 million bushels for the week ending April 7. Analysts also anticipate seeing soymeal sales ranging between 50,000 and 350,000 metric tons, plus up to 35,000 MT of soyoil sales.
China, which is by far the world’s No. 1 soybean importer, brought in 233.3 million bushels in March, which was a year-over-year decline of 18%, according to the latest available customs data.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 441.8 million bushels in April, which is 8.1% higher than the group’s forecast from a week ago. Anec also anticipates soymeal exports will reach 2.070 million metric tons this month. Around 85% of this season’s crop has been harvested, which is in line with last year’s pace.
Ukraine is the world’s No. 1 sunflower oil exporter, shipping out 5.3 million metric tons last year. But with the Russian invasion severely curbing grain export capabilities, that volume could fall nearly 36% this year to 3.4 million MT.
South Korea purchased 121,000 metric tons of soymeal in private deals, with a large portion likely sourced from South America. The grain is for arrival by the end of July.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 223,967 contracts, tracking slightly ahead of Tuesday’s final count of 204,202.
Wheat
Wheat prices continued their journey higher as the war drags on in Ukraine, and with the U.S. facing one of its lowest-rated crops in decades. Amazingly, Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts are all above $11 per bushel. May Chicago SRW futures added 9.5 cents to $11.1325, May Kansas City HRW futures rose 12.25 cents to $11.7450, and May MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 4 cents to $11.6025.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s weekly export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 23.9 million bushels for the week ending April 7.
French farm office FranceAgriMer expressed concerns that French wheat is not competitively priced in the world market. As such, 2021/22 exports outside of the European Union are expected to decline to 349.1 million bushels. France is Europe’s top wheat producer and exporter. FranceAgriMer is also closely monitoring feed demand after a recent outbreak of bird flu in the country’s poultry sector.
Egypt’s state grains buyer announced it had purchased 12.9 million bushels of wheat sourced from Europe in an international tender that recently closed. Additional details about the sale were not immediately available.
Algeria purchased 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins in a tender that closed earlier this week. The grain is for shipment starting in May, depending on where it is sourced.
Japan hopes to purchase 2.6 million bushels of feed wheat and 1.8 million bushels of animal feed barley in a simultaneous buy-and-sell auction that will be held on April 20. The grain is for arrival by late September.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 132,978 CBOT contracts, which was slightly above Tuesday’s final count of 117,840.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-May
786.25
767.25
783.5
8
22-Jul
779.5
763.5
778
5.75
Soybeans
22-May
1681.25
1652
1676
7.5
22-Jul
1668
1643.5
1665
4.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Jul
459.7
450
454.3
-2.7
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Jul
76.69
73.51
76.15
2.12
Wheat $/bushel
22-May
1124.25
1078
1113.5
9.5
22-Jul
1131.75
1086.75
1121.25
9.5
KC Wheat
22-May
1179.5
1140.75
1174
12.25
22-Jul
1184
1144.5
1178
12.25
MPLS Wheat
22-May
1169.75
1145
1159
4
22-Jul
1169.75
1144
1159
4.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Apr
140.85
140.25
140.5
0.55
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-May
163.575
161.625
161.8
0.875
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-May
112.45
110.875
111.025
-1.225
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-May
104.43
99.87
104.24
3.64
Diesel
22-May
3.7316
3.46
3.7194
0.255
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-May
3.2975
3.1388
3.2921
0.1383
Natural Gas
22-Jun
7.145
6.735
7.139
0.376
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
100.515
99.805
99.91
-0.382
Gold $/ounce
22-May
1982.4
1963.7
1981
8.9
Copper
22-Apr
4.704
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 04/01)
DAP Tampa-index
1,240.0
222
DAP-New Orleans
1,085.8
-16.53
Urea-New Orleans
1,002.0
9.92
Urea-Middle East
1,130.0
0
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
689.0
2.76
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