Afternoon report: Corn and soybeans also firm to start the week.
Grain prices shot higher on Monday, anchored by massive gains in wheat prices after fresh concerns about Ukraine’s export potential prompted a round of technical buying that pushed some contracts more than 5% higher today. Corn prices followed suit, trending 2% higher and staying comfortably ahead of the $7 per bushel benchmark. Soybean prices wobbled but managed to stay in the green, picking up gains of around 0.25%.
Most of the Corn Belt should see another 0.25″ to 1″ of rainfall between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook expects drier-than-normal conditions to return to most areas south of I-80 between June 13 and June 19, with seasonally warm weather likely for much of the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St, the Dow eased 3 points lower in afternoon trading to 32,896, erasing gains of around 300 points this morning on the heels of rising 10-year Treasury yields. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil tipped slightly lower this afternoon, staying above $118 per barrel. Gasoline dropped more than 0.5%, while diesel firmed 2% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-500), soybeans (-11,500), soymeal (-3,500) and CBOT wheat (-5,500).
Corn
Corn prices finally moved higher for the first time in five sessions as spillover strength from surging wheat prices spurred some technical buying. A solid round of export inspection data from USDA this morning lent additional support. July futures rose 16 cents to $7.43, with September futures up 13.5 cents to $7.1475.
Corn basis bids jumped as much as 25 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant while tracking 10 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant and holding steady at most other Midwestern locations on Monday.
Corn export inspections moved to 56.5 million bushels last week. That was on the upper end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 46.3 million and 59.1 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 14.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still well below last year’s pace, however, after reaching 1.722 billion bushels.
Ahead of the next USDA crop progress report, out later this afternoon and covering the week through June 5, analysts expect the agency to show corn plantings at 93%, up from 86% a week ago. USDA will also release its first quality ratings this week, and analysts think 68% of the crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, with individual guesses ranging between 60% and 76%.
The U.S. EPA finally released its final rule to set Renewable Fuel Standard blending levels for the past two years. “The 2022 blending level is in line with Congressional intent and the 2021 number was increased from the earlier proposal,” according to Farm Futures policy editor Jacqui Fatka. “However, in an unprecedented move, the EPA also reopened and reduced the 2020 RFS rule that was finalized in December of 2019.” Fatka took a closer look at this situation – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 238,548 contracts, tracking 20% higher than Friday’s final count of 199,523.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed corn and wheat prices higher on Monday but were only able to secure meager gains by the close. July futures picked up 4 cents to $17.0175, with August futures up 4.5 cents to $16.3825.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. to start the week but did tilt 7 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and ease a penny lower at an Ohio elevator today.
Soybean export inspections faced a moderate week-over-week decline, landing at 12.9 million bushels. That was also below the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 14.7 million and 22.0 million bushels. Mexico was the top destination, with 5.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year continue to trend moderately below last year’s pace, with 1.832 billion bushels.
Prior to the next crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean plantings moved from 66% a week ago up to 80% through June 5. Individual trade guesses ranged between 77% and 85%.
Worried about grain market volatility? Darren Frye, CEO of Water Street Solutions, says there are three critical things to consider. First, remember that volatility can mean opportunity. Second, remember your end goal. And finally, remember that you don’t have to go it alone. Frye expands on these ideas and offers up additional analysis in his latest Finance first column – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 144,346 contracts, sliding slightly below Friday’s final count of 148,906.
Wheat
Wheat prices jumped substantially higher on a round of technical buying, largely on worries about a severe slowdown in Ukrainian ag exports. President Zelenskiy reported earlier today that the country could be sitting on as much as 75 million metric tons of grain by this fall. July Chicago SRW futures jumped 57 cents to $10.97, July Kansas City HRW futures rose 51.75 cents to $11.7275, and July MGEX spring wheat futures gained 42.75 cents to $12.3450.
Wheat export inspections saw a blend of old and new crop shipments last week, due to the 2021/22 marketing year drawing to a close at the end of May. Total inspections were for 13.0 million bushels, moving slightly higher week-over-week but staying toward the lower end of trade guesses, which ranged between 11.0 million and 18.4 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 3.8 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are starting slightly ahead of the prior year’s pace, with 8.3 million bushels through the first two days of June.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect to see spring wheat plantings move from 73% a week ago to 85% through June 5. Winter wheat quality ratings could tilt a point higher, with 30% rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country’s wheat exports in May reached 47.8 million bushels, which was a monthly decline of 41%. Still, it was nearly triple year-ago results. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Ukrainian grain exports typically reached 5 to 6 million metric tons a month prior to the Russian invasion, but that amount has tumbled to around 1 million MMT monthly since late February, according to the country’s agriculture ministry. So far during the 2021/22 marketing year, which wraps up at the end of June, Ukraine has exported 682.6 million bushels of wheat and 881.8 million bushels of corn.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 125,220 CBOT contracts, firming moderately above Friday’s final count of 95,788.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
744.25
731.5
742.5
16
22-Sep
716.5
702.5
714.25
13.5
Soybeans
22-Jul
1717.75
1690
1699.25
4
22-Sep
1575
1555
1563.5
6
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
405.3
400.8
401.3
1
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
80.6
78.95
79.49
-0.06
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
1108.75
1060
1093
57
22-Sep
1119.5
1072
1104.5
56.5
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1184.75
1134.25
1170
51.75
22-Sep
1190.75
1141.75
1176.75
51
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1248
1201.5
1230.5
42.75
22-Sep
1248
1202.25
1230.5
36.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
134.15
132.775
132.875
-0.725
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
176.55
174.275
174.5
-1.8
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jul
110.5
107.825
109.1
-1.65
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jun
120.99
117.63
118.28
-0.59
Diesel
22-Jun
4.4084
4.2565
4.3666
0.0863
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jun
4.326
4.1845
4.2182
-0.034
Natural Gas
22-Aug
9.358
8.696
9.352
0.842
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
102.455
101.865
102.445
0.285
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1857.5
1840.3
1841.6
-3.8
Copper
22-Jun
4.4425
4.4175
4.4375
-0.04
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 05/27)
DAP Tampa-index
1,117.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
917.7
-2.76
Urea-New Orleans
642.1
-49.6
Urea-Middle East
720.0
11.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
683.4
-5.51
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
