Afternoon report: Corn also firm in Thursday’s session, with wheat prices narrowly mixed
Traders spent Thursday’s session placing a final round of bets ahead of tomorrow morning’s June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA, with mixed results. Soybeans were the biggest benefactor, rising nearly 1.75% higher and reaching the highest levels since September 2012. Nearby corn prices also firmed 1%, with a round of hot, dry weather expected to descend upon the central U.S. next week. Wheat prices posted mixed results. Chicago and Minneapolis contracts spilled into the red, while Kansas City contracts scraped up modest gains.
Most of the central U.S. will see at least some measurable moisture between Friday and Monday, with a few spots set to gather up to 0.75″ during that time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts bountiful hot, dry weather for the Midwest and Plains between June 16 and June 22.
On Wall St., the Dow dropped 202 points in afternoon trading to 32,702 as investors remain skittish about the results of the next key inflation report, which will be released tomorrow. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil dropped 0.5% this afternoon but remains above $121 per barrel. Diesel jumped more than 2% higher, in contrast, with gasoline up around 1%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,000), soybeans (+6,000), soyoil (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+2,500) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-2,000).
Corn
Corn pricesbenefited from several factors today, including hot, dry weather in the mid-range forecasts, spillover strength from soybeans and traders squaring positions ahead of Friday morning’s WASDE report. July futures added 7.75 cents to $7.7225, while September futures held steady at $7.2775.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm after rising 1 to 10 cents higher across half a dozen Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Corn exports saw 11.0 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 2.9 million bushels of new crop sales for a total of 13.9 million bushels. While old crop sales improved 51% from a week ago, total volume slumped to the low end of trade estimates, which ranged between 6.9 million and 43.3 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2021/22 marketing year are running nearly 200 million bushels below last year’s pace, with 1.877 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments slipped 12% below the prior four-week average, with 54.4 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 13.6 million bushels.
Nutrien announced today that it is hiring an additional 350 people and will invest in additional equipment and storage to boost its potash production capabilities to 18 million metric tons by 2025. That would represent a 40% increase since 2020. “There is no simple or fast solution to overcome [feeding a growing world] and we see potential for multi-year strength in agriculture and crop input market fundamentals,” according to Nutrien’s interim president and CEO Ken Seitz.
Volatility will continue to play heavily on grain prices later this season, according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. “There will be plenty of uncertainty to keep prices hopping with dramatic flair in the coming months,” she writes in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog. “Questions like, how many acres actually did get planted in the United States? What will yield be? How is the corn crop fairing in the rest of the world? Will the crop in Ukraine get exported to the world?” Click here to read Blohm’s latest round of analysis.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 465,518 contracts, shifting slightly ahead of Wednesday’s final count of 442,710.
Soybeans
Soybean prices continued to push higher on Thursday as general export optimism kept traders in a pattern of technical buying today. July futures rose 30 cents to $17.70, with August futures up 19 cents to $16.8175.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady to soft on Thursday after dropping 1 to 5 cents across three Midwestern locations. An Indiana processor bucked the overall trend after firming 10 cents higher today.
Private exporters announced the sale of 5.3 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning. A fractional amount of the total is for delivery during the current marketing year, which began September 1, with the bulk for delivery in 2022/23.
Soybean exports gathered 15.8 million bushels in old crop sales, plus another 21.9 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 37.7 million bushels. That was on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 44.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year were unable to gain any significant ground over last year’s pace after reaching 1.840 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments tracked 17% below the prior four-week average, with 17.5 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 7.0 million bushels.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 322,719 contracts, tracking moderately above Wednesday’s final count of 263,805.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mostly narrowly mixed after a round of uneven technical maneuvering on Thursday. July Chicago SRW futures slipped 1.75 cents lower to $10.73, with July MGEX spring wheat futures down 11 cents to $12.2350. Kansas City HRW contracts nearly met the same fate but pulled just back into the green by the close. July futures picked up 1.5 cents to $11.5650.
Wheat export sales started the 2022/23 marketing year with 16.6 million bushels. (Another 27.2 million bushels were carried over from last season, which ended May 31.) That was toward the higher end of trade guesses, which ranged between 6.4 million and 20.2 million bushels. Wheat export shipments finished the 2021/22 marketing year 25% below the prior year’s pace, with just under 686 million bushels.
Will domestic wheat production shortfalls generate some pricing opportunities moving forward? That’s the opinion of Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland, who offers a fresh round of analysis in her latest E-corn-omics blog – click here to learn more.
In France, farm office FranceAgriMer lowered its soft wheat export forecast for the third consecutive month, with 334.4 million bushels now expected to be sold to non-European Union destinations. Near-record prices may prove “dissuasive” for some buyers, according to Marc Zribi, head of the group’s grains unit.
In Argentina, the Rosario grains exchange is lowering its expectations for the country’s 2022/23 wheat production potential, offering a new estimate of 679.8 million bushels amid an abundance of dry weather. Plantings have reached 17% so far, well below last year’s pace. Argentina is one of the world’s top wheat exporters.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 138,326 CBOT contracts, which was slightly more than Wednesday’s final count of 135,005.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
782.75
758
773
7.75
22-Sep
737.75
719.5
729.25
0
Soybeans
22-Jul
1784
1728.5
1769
30
22-Sep
1606.75
1574
1600.25
12.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
418
405.9
417.2
9.6
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
81.09
79.46
80.25
-0.7
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
1082
1044.25
1071.25
-1.75
22-Sep
1096
1057.75
1084.75
-2.5
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1163.5
1130
1153.75
1.5
22-Sep
1171
1137
1160.75
1.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1237
1211.5
1224
-11
22-Sep
1235.25
1210.25
1222.25
-12.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
137.35
136.5
136.85
0.025
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
178.425
176.875
177.05
-0.2
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Jul
106.75
103.875
104.925
-3.025
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jul
122.72
120.79
121.46
-0.65
Diesel
22-Jul
4.4667
4.2529
4.4218
0.1075
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jul
4.3144
4.172
4.279
0.0571
Natural Gas
22-Aug
9.028
8.022
9.014
0.335
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Jun
103.23
102.09
103.17
0.624
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1853.8
1839
1847
-4.9
Copper
22-Jun
4.44
4.3855
4.387
-0.0715
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 05/27)
DAP Tampa-index
1,117.5
0
DAP-New Orleans
917.7
-2.76
Urea-New Orleans
642.1
-49.6
Urea-Middle East
720.0
11.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
683.4
-5.51
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
