Morning report: Wheat prices mixed on the rising greenback. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 2-5 cents
Soybeans down 2-3 cents, Soymeal up $3.60/ton, Soyoil down $0.59/lb
Chicago wheat down 2-3 cents, Kansas City wheat up 6-9 cents, Minneapolis wheat up 6-11 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CST.
Feedback from the Field updates – last week of the season! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Responses are starting to slow as many growers are wrapping up for the year, so our time together in FFTF this growing season will also come to an end by tomorrow. So be sure to drop any insights you’d like to share with us from the 2022 season at this link and I will share them on our map as well as in my last column of the season tomorrow as harvest season winds down. Thanks! -JH
Corn
U.S. corn prices fell $0.02-$0.05/bushel overnight as the dollar regained strength and weekend talks to keep the Black Sea grain corridor open supposedly went well.
Soybeans
Soybean prices edged $0.05-$0.09/bushel lower this morning amid a stronger dollar and uncertainty about Chinese demand prospects. China’s easing quarantine measures announced on Friday were believed to have limited some of soy’s losses over the weekend. Seasonal demand helped to boost soymeal prices overnight.
India, the world’s largest buyer of edible oils, upped its annual spending on edible oil imports over the past year as high prices persisted around the world and global supplies remained tight. India spent $19.2 billion on edible oil imports for the 2021/22 marketing year, up from $14.4 billion a year ago.
In October 2022 alone, soyoil imports represented an increasing share of India’s edible oil imports amid high palm oil prices and tight sunflower oil supplies. Palm oil imports continue to account for the largest volume of India’s international edible oil purchases, but with a 45% increase in year-over-year soyoil imports, it is increasingly clear that India is becoming a significant player to watch in the soy markets.
Another significant player in the soybean markets, albeit closer to home, is North Dakota. Two new soy processing plants are slated to open over the next two years, which will increase U.S. soy crush capacity by 30% in the next four years.
North Dakota typically sells 70% of its soybean crop to rail facilities destined for Pacific Northwest export markets, from where the crop is typically exported to China. However, the new plants are likely to keep at least half of North Dakota’s soy crop in the state and will likely provide farmers with lucrative cash opportunities in the process.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed this morning as Chicago SRW prices fell $0.02-$0.03/bushel in response to a stronger dollar while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat futures rose $0.06-$0.10/bushel on Argentina’s crop shortfalls and crop development worries in the U.S. Plains amid drought.
The U.N.-facilitated discussions between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend to keep Black Sea trade corridors accessible were held in positive regard by the markets this morning. However, the prospects strengthened the Russian currency – the rouble – overnight, which makes Russian wheat a less affordable option on the global wheat market.
Russian grain shipments are already facing headwinds from added complications and expenses due to Western banking sanctions imposed on Russia following its unprovoked invasion into Ukraine in February. Plus, some domestic logistic concerns are also slowing grain flows. “There are a lot of complaints both from exporters and domestic consumers about the lack of railcars,” consultancy Sovecon said in an overnight report.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
Weather: It will be another chilly day across the Heartland today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. A chance of snow is likely across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. Plus, a mixed precipitation system originating in the Southern Plains will begin to move northeast into the Eastern Corn Belt during that same time.
Both systems are likely to converge early tomorrow morning, with a strong chance of snow forecasted for the Central Mississippi River Valley tomorrow morning. Accumulation will likely be light, so any late harvest progress or anhydrous applications will not likely be slowed too significantly.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending much cooler than normal for the middle of the month across most of the country. Chances for rain will be below normal in the Midwest Plains, though some areas of the Southern Plains could see an above average chance of showers.
Those trends will begin to shift slightly in the 8-10-day outlook. Forecasts during that time are still cool but not quite as chilly as in the 6-10-day forecast. The chances for excessive dryness during that time will recede slightly but still remain prominent for much of the Heartland during that time.
Financials
The S&P 500 traded 0.27% lower overnight to $3,989.25 following last week’s rally on softer inflation readings and fallout from last week’s cryptocurrency drama. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the market reaction to the lower inflation data should be taken with a grain of salt – the Fed isn’t likely to slow interest rate hikes just because of a single month of lower figures.
“The market seems to have gotten way out in front on this,” Waller said. “Everybody should just take a deep breath–calm down. We have a ways to go yet.”
Waller’s comments reintroduced uncertainty back into the markets, which caused stocks to fall and the dollar to rise this morning.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Read our team’s coverage of the November 2022 WASDE report here.
My latest E-corn-omics column is about the cash market’s impact on futures prices and what could be in store for markets in 2023.
There are several factors impacting the corn and soybean market that Naomi Blohm thinks you should be watching through the end of the year.
AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick weighs the odds of China buying more U.S. soybeans following the latest USDA reports.
Farm Futures senior editor Ben Potter summarizes 10 reasons why your lender may be worried about the ag economy – and your loan.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit will feature an array of speakers – including myself! – that will provide you insights to keep running a profitable farm business.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 11/14/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.585
6.5225
6.5525
-0.0275
-0.42%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.6325
6.57
6.5975
-0.0325
-0.49%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.625
6.565
6.595
-0.0325
-0.49%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.58
6.52
6.55
-0.0325
-0.49%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2
6.165
6.1675
-0.0525
-0.84%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.09
6.045
6.0775
-0.02
-0.33%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.135
6.12
6.12
-0.045
-0.73%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1825
#N/A
6.1875
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.155
#N/A
6.1675
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6
14.6
14.6
0.045
0.31%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5525
14.3525
14.425
-0.075
-0.52%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.59
14.395
14.4675
-0.07
-0.48%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.64
14.45
14.5225
-0.07
-0.48%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6375
14.4575
14.5275
-0.0725
-0.50%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.38
14.2925
14.35
-0.08
-0.55%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.045
13.93
13.96
-0.0925
-0.66%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8925
13.7425
13.7925
-0.08
-0.58%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8075
13.775
13.8075
-0.085
-0.61%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.78
#N/A
13.79
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.72
#N/A
13.74
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
77.33
75.82
76.16
-0.81
-1.05%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
74.8
73.39
73.77
-0.77
-1.03%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.8
404.9
408.2
0.8
0.20%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
405
401.5
404.7
1.1
0.27%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
399.6
396.5
399.5
1
0.25%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
396.9
394
396.9
0.9
0.23%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
397.1
394
397.1
1.3
0.33%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.1825
8.0525
8.1025
-0.035
-0.43%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.395
8.2625
8.3125
-0.04
-0.48%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.5075
8.385
8.42
-0.045
-0.53%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.55
8.44
8.485
-0.04
-0.47%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6375
8.525
8.5525
-0.05
-0.58%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.735
8.6225
8.665
-0.0375
-0.43%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.6875
8.6875
8.6875
-0.055
-0.63%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.525
9.4275
9.4925
0.0575
0.61%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4775
9.3725
9.4375
0.0475
0.51%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.4225
9.335
9.4025
0.045
0.48%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.365
9.27
9.31
0.025
0.27%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.2575
9.255
9.255
-0.0075
-0.08%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.3375
#N/A
9.295
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.2325
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.55
9.475
9.5125
0.055
0.58%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.68
9.59
9.6475
0.065
0.68%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.725
9.6725
9.6975
0.055
0.57%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6875
9.6475
9.6675
0.0425
0.44%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.4
9.395
9.4
-0.0025
-0.03%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.44
#N/A
9.41
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.3875
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
107.15
106.33
106.995
0.831
0.78%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
89.84
87.53
87.79
-1.17
-1.32%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
89.03
86.77
87.05
-1.11
-1.26%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.6478
3.5768
3.6184
0.0631
1.77%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.52
3.4688
3.4904
0.0397
1.15%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6586
2.5923
2.5975
-0.0121
-0.46%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.5951
2.5342
2.538
-0.0176
-0.69%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
176.95
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
178.575
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
151.525
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
153.25
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
84.35
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
88.4
0
0.00%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.96
20.96
20.96
-0.02
-0.10%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.66
21.58
21.58
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.9
20.79
20.79
0
0.00%
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