Morning report: After hitting a one-week low yesterday, buyers enter back into corn, soy markets. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn up 3-7 cents
Soybeans up 8-21 cents; Soymeal up $1.40/ton; Soyoil up $0.35/lb
Chicago wheat up 5-6 cents; Kansas City wheat up 7-8 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 3-4 cents
*Prices as of 6:55am CDT.
Feedback from the Field updates! Our latest farmer updates were published on our website on Tuesday! Check out this article for all the latest on growing conditions around the country – which remain highly variable.
How does your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other farms around the country? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Corn prices edged $0.03-$0.06/bushel higher this morning with bargain buyers snapping up deals after prices hit a one-week low during yesterday’s trading session. Rising temperatures also raised yield concerns, which added bullish pressure to the corn complex this morning. But gains were held in check by increasing export volumes out of Ukraine, improving extended forecasts in the U.S., and an uncertain economic outlook.
“The weather forecasts, favourable to a return of rain, have brought a relaxing factor. However, the state of the crops remains to be monitored,” consultancy Agritel said.
Soybeans
Palm oil notched a second straight day of gains on demand optimism and lifted soyoil prices along with it. The price momentum spilled over into the soybean complex this morning, lifting soybean prices by $0.08-$0.19/bushel at last glance.
Warming temperatures amid dry pockets of the U.S. raised concerns about yield development across the Upper Midwest this morning, adding more bullish pressure to the soybean complex as the peak pod fill period continues for late planted U.S. crops. Gains were somewhat limited by cooler and wetter forecasts for the Eastern Corn Belt, but some risk remained in play as extended forecasts show hot and dry weather prospects for the Upper Midwest.
Gains are also being held in check by broad economic concerns across the globe, especially as high inflation continues to dominate headlines. An economic downturn would likely reduce global demand for oilseeds and grains.
A heat wave in China’s Yangtze River basin is raising concerns about heat damage to crops in the region. China’s Ministry of Water Resources issued a notice overnight that the ongoing drought is “adversely affecting drinking water security of rural people and livestock, and the growth of crops.”
The Ministry of Water Resources is evaluating plans to extend pipe networks, develop new sources, and temporarily transfer water to the region to help reduce the effects of the drought, particularly on crop production. The massive Three Gorges Dam is expected to increase its water flows to increase downstream discharges by 500 million cubic meters by late next week.
China is using resourceful methods to stimulate rainfall, including launching silver iodide rods from planes into the clouds. The method has been attempted in multiple locations, though attempts have largely been thwarted by lack of cloud cover.
China has been suffering through a heatwave over the past 64 days. State media reports noted overnight that it was the longest heat spell recorded since record-keeping began in 1961. And the heat isn’t likely to cool off soon. About 262 Chinese weather stations have recorded new highs of 104 degrees Fahrenheit this summer. Eight stations have notched 111 degrees.
High temperatures are expected to plague China through the end of the month. While the Yangtze is not the primary region where soybeans are typically grown in China, wheat and cattle production are still at risk.
Wheat
Even with a stronger dollar, wheat prices rose $0.04-$0.08/bushel overnight, following gains in the corn and soybean complex. Gains were held in check by rising export paces out of Ukraine and broad global economic concerns.
“Ukrainian ships are moving out, which is positive for supplies,” a Singapore-based grains trader told Reuters.
Germany’s Rhine River was forced to close to additional barges overnight after a ship’s engine failed and caused the vessel to block traffic in the waterway. Germany – as well as much of Eastern Europe – has struggled this summer to keep its waterways at high enough levels to allow for grain shipments to safely pass through.
The Rhine’s water levels are unusually low for the summer following brutal heat waves that have also damaged crops across the European Union this summer. The shrinking waterways have led to many vessels being unable to pass during peak wheat exporting season for the E.U. The E.U. is expected to be the world’s second largest wheat exporter this year and has been the primary wheat supplier of choice in the international markets this summer as shipping constraints continue to plague the Black Sea.
Luckily, the ship is expected to be cleared from the Rhine by the end of today. And rain is on the way that could revive the waterway. Shipping authorities are optimistic that the Rhine could rise “by 50 centimeters or more” by late next week thanks to plentiful rains in the impending forecast.
Ukraine: Turkey’s defense ministry announced overnight that four ships departed from Ukrainian Black Sea ports at Odessa and Chornomorsk on Wednesday. The ships are carrying sunflower meal, sunflower oil, and corn.
Russian forces responded to yesterday’s Ukrainian attacks on Crimea by launching missile strikes at the towns of Odessa and Mykolaiv overnight. At press time, there were no signs that port facilities had been damaged, but the news does raise the risk for grain movement out of the Black Sea.
The U.S. Agency for International Development will buy 5.5 million bushels of Ukrainian wheat that will be given to the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP) to help reduce the global hunger crisis. The price tag for the purchase, storage, and transport of the Ukrainian grain is expected to be $68 million. The WFP typically receives much of its grain supplies to be shipped to needy nations from Ukraine.
Weather
Temperatures across the Heartland will warm today, likely closer to approaching the 90s than in previous days, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. More scattered showers are expected across the Upper Midwest and Southern Plains today. More precipitation is expected to the south, where up to 1.5 inches is forecast over the next 24 hours. The Upper Midwest is only likely to see 0.75 inches during that time.
More moderate temperatures are forecast in the 6-10-day NOAA outlook. Areas of the Upper Midwest could still face above average temperatures and below average chances for moisture during that time, while the Central Plains and Eastern Corn Belt are trending cooler and wetter through late next week.
While the wetter and cooler forecasts bode well for some corn and soybean crops, expect market focus to shift towards crop conditions in the Upper Midwest over the next two weeks. Soybeans are still filling pods, so any exceptionally hot and dry weather could raise market concerns about 2022 yield prospects.
Financials
Data will be released today on U.S. retail sales for last month, though recent stronger-than-expected earnings reports from Home Depot, Walmart, and Target suggest that consumers are feeling the effects of inflation and adjusting their spending patterns accordingly. But these top retailers are still reaping the benefits of higher prices, reporting higher revenues from Q1 in yesterday’s earnings reports.
The S&P 500 wobbled this morning, falling 0.78% to $4,274.00 as market watchers await the release of minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee meeting in July 2022. Recent second quarter earnings reports have been stronger than markets were previously expecting and hopes for easing inflation has brought buyers back into the stock market over the past month or so.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
The farm economy is strong – for now. But Federal Reserve data shows shrinking expectations for farmland values and profitability.
Advance Trading’s Tom Berry advises producers to put their risk into perspective and act in their farm’s best interests.
Does it pay to second guess USDA? Bryce Knorr looks at five ways to estimate 2022 corn and soybean yields.
Our team’s coverage of Friday’s August 2022 WASDE reports.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 8/17/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.155
6.08
6.1525
0.0425
0.70%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.14
6.0675
6.13
0.0275
0.45%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.215
6.1475
6.205
0.025
0.40%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.25
6.19
6.22
0.005
0.08%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.2425
6.1725
6.23
0.0275
0.44%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.9375
5.9
5.9325
0.02
0.34%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.87
5.815
5.8325
-0.005
-0.09%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
5.945
5.8975
5.945
0.0325
0.55%
MAY ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
5.95
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.74
14.54
14.735
0.1925
1.32%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14
13.805
13.9725
0.1625
1.18%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.065
13.8725
14.0375
0.1575
1.13%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0925
13.915
14.07
0.1625
1.17%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.1225
13.95
14.0975
0.1575
1.13%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.115
13.9475
14.09
0.1525
1.09%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8525
13.8525
13.8525
0.0825
0.60%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
12
#N/A
13.3975
0
0.00%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.4
13.27
13.32
0.065
0.49%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
13.2875
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
13.2175
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
68.61
67.36
68.3
0.46
0.68%
OCT ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
67.22
65.86
66.77
0.25
0.38%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
440.2
434.1
436.1
0.2
0.05%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
406.1
401.6
405.9
5.2
1.30%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
401.5
397
401.3
5.2
1.31%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
398.1
393.5
398.1
5.4
1.38%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
391.5
387.3
391.5
5.3
1.37%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.97
7.84
7.8925
0.0325
0.41%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.1375
8.0075
8.0625
0.035
0.44%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.275
8.155
8.205
0.0375
0.46%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.355
8.245
8.275
0.0175
0.21%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.35
8.2275
8.275
0.025
0.30%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.34
8.2975
8.2975
0.0175
0.21%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.3725
8.3475
8.35
0.0175
0.21%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.8525
8.7025
8.7575
0.04
0.46%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.8625
8.7275
8.7775
0.045
0.52%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.855
8.745
8.77
0.025
0.29%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.86
8.74
8.76
0.0075
0.09%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.68
8.66
8.66
-0.0175
-0.20%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.15
#N/A
8.65
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.73
#N/A
8.6575
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1075
9.0175
9.065
0.0375
0.42%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.215
9.1125
9.14
0.0175
0.19%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.3025
9.235
9.2825
0.0475
0.51%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.3525
9.315
9.35
0.035
0.38%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.42
#N/A
9.3375
0
0.00%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1775
#N/A
9.125
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.1775
0
0.00%
SEP ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
106.69
106.18
106.685
0.297
0.28%
SE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
87.72
85.88
86.25
-0.28
-0.32%
OC ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
87.32
85.48
85.85
-0.31
-0.36%
SEP ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.5171
3.4528
3.4723
-0.0079
-0.23%
OCT ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.4844
3.4196
3.4402
-0.0046
-0.13%
SEP ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.9372
2.8939
2.9071
0.0064
0.22%
OCT ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.6913
2.6477
2.6672
0.0069
0.26%
AUG ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
181.525
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
185.475
0
0.00%
AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
141.3
0
0.00%
CT2 ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
145.675
0
0.00%
OCT ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
96.575
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
87.7
0
0.00%
AUG ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.12
#N/A
20.17
0
0.00%
SEP ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.96
20.8
20.96
0.09
0.43%
OCT ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.98
20.98
20.98
0
0.00%
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