Morning report: Despite weaker dollar, wheat prices edge lower on easing global supply worries. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Corn down 2-3 cents
Soybeans down 3-6 cents, Soymeal down $1.20/ton, Soyoil flat
Chicago wheat down 8-9 cents, Kansas City wheat down 1-2 cents, Minneapolis wheat down 1-2 cents
*Prices as of 6:50am CST.
Feedback from the Field updates – last day of the season! How is harvest progressing on your farm this fall?! Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s harvest progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Responses are starting to slow as many growers are wrapping up for the year, so our time together in FFTF this growing season will also come to an end today. So be sure to drop any insights you’d like to share with us from the 2022 season at this link and I will share them on our map as well as in my last column of the season today as harvest season winds down. Thanks! -JH
Corn
Corn prices drifted $0.02-$0.03/bushel lower this morning as market optimism increased for Moscow’s agreeance to keep the Black Sea grain corridor open beyond the November 19 expiration date for the current Black Sea Grains Initiative agreement.
“This week feels more friendly regarding the corridor,” a European trader told Reuters overnight.
Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report from USDA found that 93% of anticipated U.S. corn acres had been harvested as of November 13, up 6% from the previous week and 8% ahead of the five-year average for the same reporting period.
That estimate was perfectly aligned with pre-report trade estimates, which had also predicted a 93% completion rate for the week. Harvest is mostly complete around the country – and ahead of schedule in many cases – though there are some fields still standing in Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
USDA-NASS will only release two more weeks of Crop Progress reports before it pauses until the 2023 season picks up on April 3, 2023.
Soybeans
Soybean prices fell $0.03-$0.06/bushel lower overnight as the U.S. market continues to wait for fresh signs of Chinese demand. Even as the dollar weakened, there were few other signs of bullish news to support anything but lower soybean prices in today’s trading session. Today’s NOPA readings will need to be better than expected if soybeans are to reverse this morning’s losses during today’s trading session.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), which compiles data on the facilities that handle 95% of the U.S. soybeans destined for crush purposes, releases its October 2022 crush estimate today. Pre-report trade estimates peg the figure somewhere between 175 million – 193.3 million bushels with an average guess of 184.5 million bushels.
If the average trade guess is realized, it would be the second largest October crush on record, trailing only the October 2020 crush volume of 185.2 million bushels. Crush volumes typically pick up in October, as freshly harvested supplies become more readily available to end users, so it will come as no surprise that the October 2022 crush reading will likely outshine its September 2023 counterpart.
In sum, it has the potential to be a bullish report for the soybean markets today.
USDA found that 96% of U.S. soybeans had been harvested as of last Sunday, up 2% on the week and 5%
ahead of the five-year average according to yesterday’s latest Crop Progress report. The very few fields left standing are largely comprised of double crop rotations further south, with Tennessee and North Carolina still reporting plenty of harvest progress left in the season despite being quite a way ahead of the five-year average for the reporting period.
USDA’s soybean harvest reading slightly deviated from analyst expectations leading up to the report’s release. Pre-report trade estimates had pegged the U.S. soybean harvest at 97% complete, 1% higher that USDA’s reading yesterday. But with the majority of 2022 U.S. soybeans harvested, it seems unlikely that this variance will make a significant impact on overnight pricing.
Wheat
Despite a weaker dollar overnight and ongoing concerns about Argentina and Australia’s wheat crops, U.S. wheat prices fell $0.01-$0.09/bushel as markets braced for Russia to agree to keep the Black Sea grain shipping corridor open.
“The renewal, or otherwise, of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain corridor this week remains the elephant in the room,” Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters. “We expect the corridor will, ultimately, be renewed. But, like most, we are wary of what kind of disruptive skulduggery Russia’s president might think of.”
The sentiment paired with competitive Russian wheat prices for its record-breaking crop to quell any supply worries currently at play in the markets to keep a bearish environment afoot for the global wheat price complex.
USDA’s Crop Progress report found 96% of anticipated U.S. winter wheat acres for 2023 harvest had been planted as of November 13. That figure was 4% higher than the previous week’s reading and 3% above the five-year average benchmark for the same reporting period.
The figure also aligned with pre-report trade estimates, which had also been forecast at 96% complete. Emergence rates rose 8% on the week to 81% through last Sunday, which also matched the five-year average benchmark.
Crop condition ratings also improved another 2% this week, rising to 32% good to excellent. That rating bump came as a bit of a surprise to markets, who had been anticipating just a 31% good to excellent rating for the winter wheat crop in yesterday’s report.
Weather
More winter weather is ahead for the Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. A likely chance of snow is forecasted across the Upper Midwest today with up to three inches of snow possible in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, and Northern Illinois over the next 24 hours. Indiana and Ohio could see some light mixed showers during that time, though any accumulation is not likely to top a tenth of an inch.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are now trending much cooler than normal for the middle of the month across most of the country. Chances for rain will be below normal in the Midwest Plains, though some areas of the Southern Plains could see an above average chance of showers.
Those trends will begin to shift slightly in the 8-10-day outlook. Forecasts during that time are still cool but not quite as chilly as in the 6-10-day forecast. The chances for excessive dryness during that time will recede slightly but still remain prominent for much of the Heartland during that time.
Financials
U.S. President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday ahead of the G-20 climate meeting in Bali, Indonesia in a meeting that was intended to curb deteriorating diplomatic relations between the world’s two largest economies.
The goal was likely met, as both officials agreed to resume discussions about previously disagreed upon priorities. Markets welcomed the prospect of stability in U.S. and China relations, which helped boost S&P 500 futures 1% higher this morning to $4,005.75, which is the first time since mid-September of this year that the S&P 500 has returned to $4,000-territory.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Mike Downey cautions readers of the unintended consequences of an excessively high farm appraisal.
As many states attempt to install their own pesticide regulations, Congress has been asked to reaffirm pesticide preemptions.
Bryce Knorr explains why you shouldn’t read too much into the CPI inflationary reading’s impact on corn prices.
There are several factors impacting the corn and soybean market that Naomi Blohm thinks you should be watching through the end of the year.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit will feature an array of speakers – including myself! – that will provide you insights to keep running a profitable farm business.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 11/15/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
6.575
6.53
6.5425
-0.03
-0.46%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5925
6.5525
6.5625
-0.03
-0.46%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.585
6.5475
6.5625
-0.0225
-0.34%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5375
6.5
6.5175
-0.02
-0.31%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.185
6.16
6.1675
-0.0225
-0.36%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.07
6.0425
6.055
-0.0175
-0.29%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1225
6.12
6.12
-0.02
-0.33%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1475
#N/A
6.1625
0
0.00%
JUL ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1075
6.1075
6.1075
-0.0275
-0.45%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.435
14.325
14.34
-0.065
-0.45%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.48
14.3675
14.3875
-0.06
-0.42%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.5425
14.4375
14.4525
-0.0575
-0.40%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.55
14.4475
14.465
-0.0575
-0.40%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.3675
14.305
14.305
-0.055
-0.38%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.035
13.95
13.95
-0.05
-0.36%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.855
13.7675
13.7875
-0.035
-0.25%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8525
13.81
13.81
-0.03
-0.22%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.75
#N/A
13.735
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.705
#N/A
13.6875
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
13.6925
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
76.71
75.7
76.02
-0.26
-0.34%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
74.33
73.32
73.57
-0.31
-0.42%
DEC ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
408.2
405
405.9
-0.1
-0.02%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
404.1
401.1
402.3
0.1
0.02%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
399.6
396.8
398.3
0.2
0.05%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
397.3
394.6
396.2
0.2
0.05%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
397.2
394.6
396.6
0.4
0.10%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.1975
8.01
8.08
-0.105
-1.28%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.3925
8.205
8.2825
-0.1
-1.19%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.49
8.3225
8.37
-0.1225
-1.44%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.54
8.38
8.4475
-0.0925
-1.08%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.595
8.4625
8.53
-0.0825
-0.96%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.71
8.565
8.6325
-0.075
-0.86%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
8.645
8.645
8.645
-0.1
-1.14%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.565
9.445
9.5275
-0.035
-0.37%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.5
9.38
9.465
-0.0325
-0.34%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.44
9.35
9.395
-0.05
-0.53%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.36
9.25
9.3175
-0.04
-0.43%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.3075
9.2525
9.3075
-0.0325
-0.35%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
9.3425
9.33
9.335
-0.03
-0.32%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.2975
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.6475
9.5425
9.5925
-0.0375
-0.39%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.7575
9.65
9.6925
-0.045
-0.46%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.8
9.775
9.775
-0.01
-0.10%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.775
#N/A
9.78
0
0.00%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.54
9.54
9.54
-0.0075
-0.08%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.52
#N/A
9.535
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
9.495
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
106.94
105.785
105.955
-0.576
-0.54%
DE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
85.82
84.06
85.11
-0.76
-0.89%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
85.18
83.54
84.61
-0.55
-0.65%
DEC ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.5734
3.5374
3.563
0.019
0.54%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.4542
3.4207
3.4457
0.0167
0.49%
DEC ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.541
2.4954
2.519
-0.0095
-0.38%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.4837
2.4416
2.4668
-0.0051
-0.21%
NOV ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
177.3
176.45
177.025
0.075
0.04%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
179.7
178.55
179.475
0.025
0.01%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
152.375
151.25
151.6
0.025
0.02%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
153.675
152.275
152.525
-0.025
-0.02%
DEC ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
85.95
84.35
84.9
0.025
0.03%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
89.975
88.25
89
0.025
0.03%
NOV ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21
21
21
0.01
0.05%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
21.78
21.78
21.78
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.65
#N/A
20.72
0
0.00%
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