Morning report: Soy sees extra boost from Argentine trucker strike. Wheat flat to mixed on lingering war activities. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
Tune in at 10 a.m. Central time TODAY as Ben Potter shares insights on what weather experts are sharing about the 2022 season and what it means for the growing season, and harvest.
Corn up 2-4 cents
Soybeans up 9-15 cents; Soymeal up $5.20/ton; Soyoil up $0.49/lb
Chicago wheat up 2-4 cents; Kansas City & Minneapolis wheat mixed
*Prices as of 6:50am CDT.
Good morning! Markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Easter holidays. There will be no morning report tomorrow but we will be back on Monday morning. Have a happy Easter!
Feedback from the Field is back! Our Feedback from the Field series is live for the 2022 season! Just click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s spring progress. I review and upload results daily to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can see others’ responses from across the country – or even across the county!
Corn
Corn prices continued to climb this morning, as new crop December 2022 futures were on pace to notch yet another life-of-contract high at $7.385/bushel this morning. Cool and wet weather in the Midwest continues to dash hopes for early planting activity – and more corn acres – adding bullish pressure to global corn supplies.
Ethanol output fell for a third straight week in yesterday’s weekly Petroleum Inventory Status report released from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to 41.8 million gallons/day of output, a nine-week low. High corn prices – which are inching towards the $8/bushel benchmark as I write this – and high fuel prices are squeezing ethanol producers’ margins at both ends and triggering contraction signals for now.
Consumers are beginning to bristle at high fuel prices and cutting back on travel at a time of year when travel typically increases. Ethanol blending rates are scheduled to increase to 15% during the summer, but that production surge is still nearly two months away from taking effect.
For now, market forces are holding back ethanol’s recovery. But brighter days are ahead for the fuel additive.
Soybeans
An ongoing trucker strike in Argentina combined with cool and wet Midwestern weather that could delay soy planting progress this morning to send soybean futures $0.08-$0.12/bushel higher this morning. Soyoil and soymeal futures benefitted the most from the Argentine truckers strike, which will likely further squeeze already tight global edible oil supplies.
Strike activity continues in Argentina after negotiations between the Federation of Argentine Transporters (FETRA), industry groups, and government officials failed to reach a resolution yesterday. Argentina’s truckers are protesting freight rates amid surging inflation.
The strike, which began Monday, will continue today. All grain transport via trucks has been stopped during Argentina’s peak export season as corn and soybean harvests continue.
“The lack of an agreement severely harms exporters; it is essential that the strike be lifted as soon as possible,” Gustavo Idigoras, head of the CIARA-CEC grains processors and exporters chamber, told Reuters.
The news is bullish for corn and soybean markets in the U.S. as Argentina is the world’s third largest exporter of both products and the world’s largest exporter of soy products.
“We have 450,000 tonnes that can’t enter ports, 50 ships in line, huge logistics costs, and Easter is coming. This is going to lead to a total paralysis of shipments and foreign exchange if it is not resolved before Monday.”
Wheat
Despite precipitation in the Midwest this week, dry weather continues to plague the Central and Southern Plains as Northern Plains spring wheat growers remain shut out of fields due to snow, further delaying spring wheat sowing. Wheat markets were largely flat this morning, wavering within a cent or two of gains and losses, as markets weighed production concerns against the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
“Markets remain extremely nervous, with a risk that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will drag on,” French consultancy Agritel told Reuters.
Mixed news out of the European Union’s Strategie Grains consultancy pointed to smaller E.U. wheat supplies and larger Russian wheat shipments, with the overarching sentiment bearish for U.S. wheat prices this morning.
Strategie Grains scaled back its expectations of higher soft wheat exports after adjusting it higher last month to account for Russian sanctions and Ukrainian port closures. But Russian wheat shipments have continued at a steady clip, negating the need for global buyers to increase wheat purchases from the E.U.
As a result, Strategie Grains issued a 3% decrease in its previous forecast for 2021/22 E.U. wheat exports, dropping it to 1.15 billion bushels. The consultancy expects strong demand due to the Ukrainian conflict and U.S. weather disruptions will boost will keep 2022/23 wheat exports steady for the E.U., raising its new crop exports forecast by 2% to 1.11 billion bushels.
The consultancy expects livestock demand for wheat to wane as prices remain astronomical.
Russia’s wheat is among the cheapest in the world right now, making it very hard to turn down despite international banking sanctions levied on the country’s financial institutions. Egypt took advantage of the situation, accepting Russian and Bulgarian offers on the second round of tender negotiations yesterday.
A German offer on the tender was actually cheaper than Russia and Bulgaria’s offers, but the higher shipping costs for the German wheat caused the Egyptian buyers to favor Russia and Bulgaria’s bids instead.
Egypt has been making a concerted effort to diversify its wheat originators in the wake of the Black Sea conflict. Egyptian officials have courted the U.S., India, France, and Argentina for their wheat supplies in recent weeks. And Egyptian buyers have already booked wheat shipments from France, Brazil, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Germany – suppliers from which Egypt has not made purchases from in years.
“GASC has not bought German wheat for many years but the disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports from the war and sanctions looks like opening up opportunities for other exporters in the Egyptian market,” a German trader told Reuters overnight.
Weather
Temperatures in the Central Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt will cool off today after early week highs, according to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Winter weather continues to batter the Northern Plains with more snow on the way for North Dakota today.
Mostly clear skies over the Midwest for the next 24 hours will likely not give growers a chance to get out into the fields, as soil temperatures continue to hover below the optimal 50-degree planting range. The Eastern Corn Belt can expect a chance of light showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Financials
Equity indices were mixed this morning as investors weighed rising inflation against expected interest rate increases. The European Central Bank is currently meeting to decide its next steps to combat surging prices, which will likely have an impact on U.S. markets this morning. China bucked the trend of rising interest rates in the wake of economic distress due to its latest round of COVID lockdowns, loosening its monetary policy overnight.
Also worth a read on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Check out our latest Farm Progress 365 webinar sessions for the latest risk management and weather tips!
Advance Trading’s Kent Stutzman has insights on how to make proactive market moves during times of extreme volatility.
The EPA has issued a workplan to ensure pesticide registrations, including consultations, are both timely and legally defensible as peak spraying season approaches.
The warn in Ukraine raised global food security concerns. But Purdue University’s Consumer Food Insights Report for the month of March suggests that food insecurity was already on the rise prior to the war’s onset.
AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick expects historic summer rallies are on the way as tight corn, soybean, and wheat stocks overpower any hopes for trendline yields.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 4/14/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.8925
7.81
7.8775
0.0425
0.54%
JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.83
7.7525
7.8125
0.0325
0.42%
SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.505
7.4375
7.495
0.025
0.33%
DEC ’22 CORN
$ / BSH
7.39
7.325
7.3875
0.03
0.41%
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4125
7.35
7.405
0.025
0.34%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.4075
7.3525
7.405
0.0225
0.30%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
7.3625
7.3125
7.3625
0.0225
0.31%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.925
16.7625
16.8975
0.1375
0.82%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.795
16.63
16.765
0.115
0.69%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
16.3725
16.235
16.3175
0.0675
0.42%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.605
15.4775
15.5675
0.0925
0.60%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.2
15.0275
15.13
0.0725
0.48%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.21
15.0175
15.13
0.08
0.53%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0625
14.825
14.965
0.1225
0.83%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.025
14.785
14.925
0.1225
0.83%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
15.0075
14.8675
15
0.2075
1.40%
MAY ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
78.98
77.98
78.57
0.46
0.59%
JUL ’22 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
76.86
75.82
76.37
0.22
0.29%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
464.2
458.3
463.1
4.9
1.07%
JUL ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
459.9
454
458.4
4.1
0.90%
AUG ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
448.3
443.9
447.2
3
0.68%
SEP ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
436.1
432.8
435
2.5
0.58%
OCT ’22 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
425.4
422.1
424.2
2.3
0.55%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.275
11.01
11.125
-0.01
-0.09%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3525
11.0925
11.205
-0.0075
-0.07%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.3175
11.075
11.17
-0.015
-0.13%
DEC ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.2375
11.0175
11.08
-0.0375
-0.34%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
11.1225
10.945
10.9825
-0.0425
-0.39%
MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.8625
11.645
11.7275
-0.0125
-0.11%
JUL ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.905
11.6775
11.765
-0.015
-0.13%
SEP ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.88
11.655
11.74
-0.0275
-0.23%
DEC ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.81
11.605
11.675
-0.04
-0.34%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
11.715
11.7
11.715
0.055
0.47%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.6925
11.505
11.5775
-0.0125
-0.11%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.685
11.505
11.5775
-0.0125
-0.11%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.5325
11.37
11.48
0.0475
0.42%
DEC ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.52
11.37
11.4275
-0.005
-0.04%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
11.46
#N/A
11.4025
0
0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
99.925
99.555
99.625
-0.288
-0.29%
MA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
104.33
102.46
103.05
-1.2
-1.15%
JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
103.82
102.07
102.65
-1.14
-1.10%
MAY ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.7855
3.6648
3.7565
0.0381
1.02%
JUN ’22 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.5858
3.474
3.5524
0.0247
0.70%
MAY ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.2991
3.2382
3.2515
-0.0398
-1.21%
JUN ’22 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
3.282
3.2198
3.2305
-0.0401
-1.23%
APR ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
158.55
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
161.95
0
0.00%
AP ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
140.625
0
0.00%
JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
136.875
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
99.9
0
0.00%
MAY ’22 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
111.525
0
0.00%
APR ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
24.27
24.27
24.27
0.05
0.21%
MAY ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.18
25.16
25.16
-0.01
-0.04%
JUN ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
25.05
#N/A
25.1
0
0.00%
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