Morning report: Wheat prices edge up on fresh international bargain buying this week. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
*Prices as of 6:55 am CST.
Good morning! Our annual Farm Futures December 2023 farmer survey will close over the weekend! The data from this survey is used to predict 2022 production ahead of the January 2023 WASDE report and also provides the first look at 2023 acreage, which will be announced at our Farm Futures Business Summit in mid-January 2023.
If you haven’t taken our survey yet (which we shortened for your convenience!), and would still like to participate, click this link to start the survey. We look forward to sharing the results with you on our platforms after the new year begins!
Corn
Commodity markets have fallen prey to losses in the broader financial market this morning. Global selloffs yesterday on interest rate hike worries and a cloudy global outlook as the new year approaches trickled into the commodity space overnight, sending U.S. corn futures $0.01/bushel lower.
“Weak economic data and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment across commodity markets,” ANZ said in a brief, as reported by Reuters. Weak retail spending data released yesterday revived fears of an economic downturn in the U.S.
Soybeans
Soybean prices edged $0.02-$0.08/bushel lower this morning as rains and temperatures continue to fall in Brazil, coaxing the newly planted crop a little closer to a bumper harvest.
Losses were limited by a robust weekly export sales report from USDA yesterday, which highlighted a 69% weekly increase in 2022/23 soybean export sales orders (108.1M bu.). The estimate surprised market watchers, who had not been expecting USDA’s total yesterday to top 96 million bushels.
But growing worries about Argentina’s crop helped keep further losses at bay in the soybean complex this morning. Argentina has enjoyed some of the same rains that have been falling in Brazil over the past week, but this year’s drought remains so severe that the recent uptick in moisture is still not enough to sustain young Argentine corn and soybean crops.
“Despite some rains recorded last Friday over the center of the agricultural area, water supplies continue to be inconsistent and insufficient,” the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) stated in a weekly report published yesterday.
The Exchange reported that 51% of the more than 41 million acres of Argentine soybeans expected to be grown this year were planted as of Wednesday. That pace is 14.2% slower than last year as farmers have delayed planting in hopes for rain.
But as farmers continue to wait, the chances for a smaller Argentine soybean harvest grows. Planting is already 20%-22.3% behind in the Pampas Grains Belt, which is Argentina’s largest crop-producing region.
As the world’s third largest soybean exporter and the world’s largest processed soy products exporter, further damage to Argentina’s soybean crop this winter could have some bullish impacts on U.S. soybean prices.
Wheat
A fresh wave of Russian missiles targeted Ukrainian energy facilities overnight – and with some degree of success. A senior Ukrainian presidential official, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, told reporters overnight that the strikes caused several emergency power shutdowns across Ukraine, though Tymoshenko did not specify which facilities suffered damage.
Wheat markets showed some sign of worry about Ukrainian export paces as a result of the missile strikes, with U.S. futures rising $0.01-$0.03/bushel this morning. Drought worries in Argentina also helped prop up the wheat market this morning, though gains were limited by a stronger dollar.
The wheat market is likely to end the week at a slight gain after Chicago prices touched a two-month low last week. The drop triggered an international bargain buying spree, supporting the week’s price gains in the U.S.
Weather
Snow will continue to hover over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. However, today’s accumulation is likely to be much lighter than that from earlier this week. After a week in which much of the Heartland has experienced heavy rain, snow, and/or ice, skies are expected to clear through the weekend while cold weather settles in.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are trending much cooler than usual for most of the continental U.S. through late next week. Chances for precipitation during that time are leaning above average for the Northern and Central Plains as well as the Great Lakes region.
The temperature trends in the 8-10-day outlook will continue to remain unusually cold across the country as the New Year approaches. Chances for moisture are likely to remain slightly above to near normal for the Northern and Central Plains during that time while the Eastern Corn Belt could see below average chances for precipitation.
Financials
S&P 500 futures tumbled 1.04% lower overnight to $3,886.50 as a bearish hangover from yesterday’s selloff lingered in the markets this morning. The expectation of more interest rate increases from both the U.S.’s Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to curb inflation was the key driver of this bearish flurry. Energy prices also skidded lower on demand worries amid a potential global recession that could be brought on by the rate hikes.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Naomi Blohm explains why sorghum acres may take off next spring.
Farm Futures’ new policy editor, Joshua Baethge, explains why the bipartisan Water Resources Development Act could help improve ag exports.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit is back in Coralville, Iowa and we have a packed speaker lineup – we hope you’ll join us for all the fun!
Check out our December 2023 Farm Progress 365 series to start achieving your 2023 goals a little early.
My latest E-corn-omics column takes a deep dive into all the recent happenings in the fertilizer markets.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 12/16/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5575
6.51
6.5275
-0.0075
-0.11%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.56
6.515
6.53
-0.0075
-0.11%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5075
6.4675
6.4825
-0.0075
-0.12%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.1225
6.09
6.105
-0.0075
-0.12%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.99
5.96
5.9725
-0.0075
-0.13%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.06
6.04
6.05
-0.01
-0.17%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.095
6.0775
6.0875
-0.0025
-0.04%
UL2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0825
6.0625
6.0825
0.0025
0.04%
SEP ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
5.715
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.8125
14.655
14.705
-0.03
-0.20%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.845
14.6925
14.74
-0.0275
-0.19%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.8725
14.7225
14.7625
-0.035
-0.24%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.9075
14.7575
14.805
-0.03
-0.20%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.6825
14.545
14.58
-0.045
-0.31%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.15
14.0375
14.07
-0.055
-0.39%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8925
13.7975
13.825
-0.0575
-0.41%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.92
13.83
13.86
-0.06
-0.43%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.86
13.7725
13.78
-0.075
-0.54%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.825
#N/A
13.83
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
11.75
#N/A
13.845
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
64.15
62.83
63.35
-0.47
-0.74%
MAR ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
63.28
61.96
62.45
-0.53
-0.84%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
458.3
454.8
456.6
1.3
0.29%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
455.6
452.2
454.4
1.8
0.40%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
448.9
445.7
447.5
1.3
0.29%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
444.1
441.8
443.4
1.7
0.38%
AUG ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
435.9
434.4
435.7
1.5
0.35%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.6425
7.55
7.6
0.0275
0.36%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.72
7.635
7.6825
0.0225
0.29%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.76
7.675
7.725
0.02
0.26%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.81
7.7375
7.7625
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9175
7.84
7.8725
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9675
7.905
7.9425
0.0125
0.16%
AY2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
7.93
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.6425
8.5525
8.6125
0.0075
0.09%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.555
8.48
8.535
0.0075
0.09%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.4675
8.42
8.4575
0.01
0.12%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.47
8.46
8.47
0.0125
0.15%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.5125
8.5125
8.5125
0.0175
0.21%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.48
#N/A
8.4625
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.4
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1975
9.1525
9.1625
-0.025
-0.27%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1525
9.115
9.1525
0.0125
0.14%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.12
#N/A
9.1125
0
0.00%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.95
8.935
8.95
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.96
8.96
8.96
-0.0225
-0.25%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.98
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
0
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
104.72
104.23
104.535
0.003
0.00%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
76.57
73.98
74.3
-1.81
-2.38%
FE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
76.58
74
74.38
-1.77
-2.32%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.2963
3.2073
3.211
-0.0724
-2.21%
FEB ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.2242
3.1407
3.153
-0.0616
-1.92%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.19
2.1193
2.1337
-0.0331
-1.53%
FEB ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.2004
2.1309
2.1452
-0.0348
-1.60%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
183.05
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
184.675
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
154.05
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
154.85
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
81.65
0
0.00%
APR ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
89.175
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.54
#N/A
20.54
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.64
19.62
19.64
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.04
#N/A
19.27
0
0.00%
