Afternoon report: Corn eases slightly, soybeans firm slightly and wheat suffers moderate setback
Grains were lightly mixed for the most part on Thursday as traders began gearing up for the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA, which will be released next Monday morning. Corn eased slightly after some light technical selling, while soybeans closed with modest gains. Wheat losses were variable, ranging from 0.2% to 2.0% today.
A look at the latest U.S. Drought Monitor data, released Thursday morning and covering the week through September 6, shows 63.7% of the country is experiencing some level of drought, down slightly from the prior week’s tally of 64.4%. Around 80% of the High Plains is under drought conditions, while only 28.4% of the Midwest is currently affected. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook anticipates seasonally wet weather returning to the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between September 15 and September 21.
On Wall St., the Dow tracked 166 points higher in afternoon trading to 31,747 as investors struggle to get beyond inflation and interest rate worries.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soymeal (+2,000) and CBOT wheat (+10,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-3,250), soybeans (-5,000) and soyoil (-1,500).
Corn
Corn prices incurred small overnight losses and were unable to make any positive headway after some light technical selling on Thursday, closing modestly lower today. September futures faded 2.25 cents lower to $6.7450, with December futures down 2 cents to $6.69.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady to weak after tumbling 25 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal and dropping 5 to 15 cents lower at three other Midwestern locations on Wednesday. An Iowa ethanol plant bucked the overall trend after firming 2 cents today.
USDA won’t release an export sales report this week, but analysts think corn sales for the week ending September 1 ranged between 11.8 million and 41.3 million bushels.
Prior to USDA’s September WASDE report, out Monday morning, analysts expect the agency to show 2022 corn production at 14.088 billion bushels, based on average yields of 172.5 bushels per acre across 81.686 million harvested acres. Individual per-acre yield estimates ranged between 170.6 bpa and 174.9 bpa.
Curious as to what next week’s WASDE report might reveal? “It should be noted USDA doesn’t get in the field in August, so the September report is their first in-the-field assessment,” according to Matt Bennett, Illinois farmer and commodity analyst with AgMarket.net. “We’ll review a couple of important items to consider as we head into what could be a volatile report.” Bennett breaks down those items in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Conab now estimates that the country’s 2021/22 total corn production is 4.459 billion bushels, which is modestly lower than its prior projection of 4.515 billion bushels. Still, that’s much better over last season’s drought-stressed tally of 3.429 billion bushels.
Ethanol production for the week ending September 2 made modest improvements but stayed below the 1-million-barrel-per-day production benchmark for the fourth consecutive week, with a daily average of 989,000 barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Stocks tightened by 2% last week.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways last week reached 20,342 carloads. That brings cumulative totals for 2022 to 771,799 carloads, which is a year-over-year decrease of 4.5% so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 157,261 contracts, sliding moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 233,771.
Soybeans
Soybean prices pushed through a choppy session on Thursday with some modest gains by the close after some net technical buying today. September futures picked up 3.75 cents to $14.7050, while November futures added 5 cents to $13.8850.
Soybean basis bids showed plenty of volatility on Thursday after jumping as much as 30 cents higher at a Nebraska processor while tumbling as much as 50 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal today.
USDA isn’t planning on releasing its typical export sales report tomorrow due to technical issues, but analysts think soybean sales for the week ending September 1 came in between 25.7 million and 55.1 million bushels. Analysts also think there were an additional 50,000 to 450,000 metric tons of soyoil sales last week, plus up to 35,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Ahead of the September WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect to see the agency show 2022 soybean production at 4.496 billion bushels, based on average yields of 51.5 bushels per acre across 87.288 million harvested acres.
Brazil’s Conab offered a new estimate of the country’s 2021/22 soybean production, trending modestly higher to 4.613 billion bushels. That’s still well below year-ago totals of 5.122 billion bushels, however. Per-acre yield estimates ranged between 50.7 bpa and 52.0 bpa.
How do your farm’s crop conditions stack up against other operations in the U.S.? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Interesting in setting up a side business? Brothers Jay and Dillon Buline understood they would need to develop a diversification plan if they wanted to come back to the family farm. Farm Futures executive editor Mike Wilson caught up with the Bulines and shared their story – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 104,591 contracts, shifting 39% below Wednesday’s final count of 170,454.
Wheat
Wheat prices eroded lower on Thursday after enjoying a solid rally yesterday, as traders continue to assess the ongoing turmoil in the Black Sea region and square positions ahead of Monday’s WASDE report. December Chicago SRW futures fell 12 cents to $8.3225, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 5.25 cents to $8.9625, and December MGEX spring wheat futures eased 1.5 cents to $8.9850.
For the week ending September 1, analysts think wheat sales ranged between 9.2 million and 20.2 million bushels.
Russian consultancy IKAR is bullish on the country’s 2022 wheat production potential, raising its latest forecast to 3.564 billion bushels, adding that Russia’s export potential is now at 1.690 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
France’s soft wheat production this past season came in at 1.235 billion bushels, according to growers group AGPB. That’s fractionally below France’s farm ministry estimate of 1.245 billion bushels.
A Taiwanese flour milling association purchased 2.0 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in November.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 72,053 CBOT contracts, trending moderately lower than Wednesday’s final count of 131,500.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
679.5
666.5
674.5
-2.25
22-Dec
675.25
659
668.5
-2
Soybeans
22-Sep
1484.5
1472.75
1470.5
3.75
22-Nov
1397.25
1373
1386
5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Oct
418.8
408.5
409.1
-4.8
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Oct
65.47
62.85
65.04
1.51
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
816.5
805.5
810.5
-16
22-Dec
857.25
818
829
-12
KC Wheat
22-Sep
902.25
900
893
-1.5
22-Dec
916.75
881.75
893
-5.25
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
880
880
879.5
-2.25
22-Dec
920
887.75
898.25
-1.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
144.7
143.775
144.4
0.15
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
184.9
183.575
184.525
0.575
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
83.875
81.9
82.725
-0.875
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
84.25
81.2
83.21
1.27
Diesel
22-Oct
3.6057
3.4826
3.5469
-0.0391
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.3601
2.289
2.3382
0.0305
Natural Gas
22-Nov
8.12
7.834
7.984
0.083
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
110.25
109.29
109.685
-0.147
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1729.3
1704.4
1707.8
-7.5
Copper
22-Sep
3.5505
3.4525
3.5455
0.1075
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/02)
DAP Tampa-index
820.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
833.9
18.19
Urea-New Orleans
766.1
82.67
Urea-Middle East
863.0
68.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
531.9
55.12
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