Afternoon report: Corn, soybeans and wheat close out the week with variable gains on Friday
Grain prices were on the rise on Friday amid general export optimism, rising energy prices and a softening U.S. Dollar. Soybeans saw the biggest boost, with prices closing with gains of around 1.75%. Most wheat contracts grabbed double-digit gains after moving 0.8% to 1.3% higher. Corn prices were slightly firm in a mostly uneventful session today.
Plenty of rain is likely over the weekend into early next week, with a band stretching from Louisiana to Wisconsin likely to get 1″ or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts above-average precipitation for the Plains between November 11 and November 18, with seasonally cool conditions likely for the western half of the country during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 94 points in afternoon trading to 32,095 but may end the week in the red on lingering concerns over quickly rising interest rates. Energy futures made solid inroads, anchored by gains of nearly 5% by crude oil, which climbed to $92 per barrel. Gasoline and diesel each firmed around 1.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened significantly and has shown bouts of volatility in recent sessions.On Thursday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-5,500), soybeans (-4,500), soymeal (-4,500), soyoil (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,000).
Corn
Corn prices made modest inroads on some net technical buying on Friday. Prices have been very stable for at least the past six to seven weeks, in fact. Today, December and March futures each picked up a penny to reach $6.8025 and $6.8575, respectively.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Friday but did tilt 3 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and 5 cent slower at an Iowa processor today.
Officials with the United States and China met yesterday to discuss, among other things, “the importance of making expeditious progress in addressing the issues in Mexico’s energy sector” along with “the importance of avoiding a disruption in U.S. corn exports,” according to a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative. Mexico currently imports around 669 million bushels of U.S. corn annually, but there are plans in place to phase out non-GMO purchases by 2024.
Ahead of the next USDA WASDE report, out next Wednesday, analysts expect to see mostly steady corn data compared to the agency’s October projections. That includes average yields of 171.9 bushels per acre, for a total production of 13.887 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to rise from 1.172 billion bushels in October up to 1.207 billion bushels.
“While you may want to rest from the hectic rush of harvest, now is the time to scenario plan for the grain marketing opportunities in front of you now, and start thinking about marketing 2023 and potentially even the 2024 crop,” according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Blohm offers some analysis and advice in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
French farm office FranceAgriMer has marked 99% of the country’s corn harvest as complete through October 31, keeping it 28 days ahead of 2021’s pace and 18 days ahead of the prior five-year average. Production is expected to fall to a three-decade low after suffering through widespread drought and multiple heatwaves.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 229,100 contracts, sliding slightly below Thursday’s final count of 246,086.
Soybeans
Soybean prices saw solid improvements after export optimism from potential Chinese import needs triggered a round of technical buying. A weakening U.S. Dollar and rising energy futures lent additional support. November futures rose 24.75 cents to $14.5150, with January futures up 25.5 cents to $14.6250.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm on Friday after rising 10 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and improving 5 to 10 cents at three Midwestern processors today.
Ahead of the next WASDE report from USDA, out November 9, analysts don’t expect to see big changes for the 2022 soybean crop compared to October results. That includes yield estimates of 49.8 bushels per acre, for a total production of 4.315 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to rise from 200 million bushels in October up to 212 million bushels.
Drought conditions have caused some delays for soybean plantings in Argentina. “The extreme climatic conditions now put soybean planting on the ropes,” according to a recent report from the Rosario grains exchange. “It is the most difficult and uncertain planting of the last 12 years.” The Rosario grains exchange currently estimates that the country’s 2022/23 soybean footprint will be 42.008 million acres.
A South Korean animal feed maker has passed on all offers in its tender to purchase 60,000 metric tons of soymeal. Prices were regarded as too high. The grain would have been for arrival in mid-April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 162,461 contracts, which was slightly higher than Thursday’s final count of 145,526.
Wheat
Wheat prices trended moderately higher as traders continued to assess the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Black Sea region, along with ongoing export trends, other commodity prices and more. December Chicago SRW futures added 7 cents to $8.4750, December Kansas City HRW futures rose 12.75 cents to $9.54, and December MGEX spring wheat futures gained 11 cents to $9.54.
Prior to next Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat stocks move slightly higher, from October’s tally of 576 million bushels up to 578 million bushels in November. World ending stocks are expected to decline slightly, from 9.830 billion bushels in October down to 9.793 billion bushels in November.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that the country’s 2022/23 soft wheat crop plantings were 84% complete through October 31, up from 63% a week ago. Emergence is at 61% over the same period. Farm field work has progressed faster than it has in recent years.
Iraq purchased 5.5 million bushels of hard wheat in an international tender that recently closed. The grain is divided into three consignments with grain sourced from Lithuania, Canada and Australia. Iraqi officials indicated several weeks ago that it will need to import around 183.7 million bushels of wheat in 2023.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve ventured onto FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is an easy way to quickly catch up on the ag industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content explores how Brazil’s recent election might affect U.S. farmers, national FFA convention highlights and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 87,137 CBOT contracts, inching slightly higher than Thursday’s final count of 86,876.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
685.25
678.5
681
1
23-Mar
690.75
684
686.75
1
Soybeans
22-Nov
1453.75
1424.25
1451.5
24.75
23-Jan
1465.5
1431.5
1462.25
25.5
Soymeal $/ton
23-Jan
415.5
407.7
412.8
5.7
Soyoil cents/lb
23-Jan
75.14
73.1
74.85
1.78
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
855.5
834
847.75
7
23-Mar
874
853.25
866.75
6.75
KC Wheat
22-Dec
958.5
939
953.25
12.75
23-Mar
955
937.5
950.75
12.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
961
943
954.5
11
23-Mar
972
954.25
966.5
12.5
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
152.5
151.55
151.7
-0.25
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
23-Jan
180.6
178.8
179.65
0.225
Lean Hogs cents/lb
23-Feb
87.925
86.4
86.425
-0.75
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Dec
92.82
87.82
92.73
4.56
Diesel
22-Dec
3.9565
3.8223
3.9174
0.0521
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Dec
2.8172
2.6842
2.7376
0.0437
Natural Gas
23-Jan
6.82
6.267
6.756
0.426
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Dec
112.875
110.775
110.78
-2.024
Gold $/ounce
22-Dec
1683.6
1631.1
1674.5
47.2
Copper
22-Nov
3.7195
3.6345
3.7065
0.25
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 11/04)
DAP Tampa-index
700.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
764.5
-26.46
Urea-New Orleans
583.1
-28.66
Urea-Middle East
587.5
-60
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
599.7
-14.88
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