Morning report: Recession worries ease in the financial markets, but remain top of mind in the commodity space this morning. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
*Prices as of 6:50 am CST.
Corn
Even though last week’s recession fears are easing slightly in the financial markets, demand concerns continued to linger in the commodity space over the weekend. Corn futures dipped $0.02-$0.04/bushel this morning, with nearby contracts trading between $6.08-$6.50/bushel on the prospects as trading volumes thin out ahead of the holiday.
“Central banks are continuing the fight against inflation which has traders worried that there will not be a soft landing,” consultancy Hightower said in a memo, as reported by Reuters.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all increased benchmark interest rates last week and renewed fears that the hikes could trigger a global economic recession in the coming year.
Soybeans
Soybean futures prices dropped $0.04-$0.11/bushel overnight as concerns about Chinese demand remain top of mind for traders, amid a murky outlook following China’s easing COVID-19 policies. Stock indices in Asia traded weaker during the overnight session, amplifying weak demand worries as the year inches to a close.
Wheat
A cold snap across Europe is not likely to inflict damage on the region’s winter wheat crop, despite a warmer than usual autumn that was expected to leave the crop more susceptible to frost damage. Winter wheat futures in Chicago and Kansas City traded $0.01-$0.05/bushel lower this morning on broad economic worries.
Spring wheat futures wavered between gains and losses this morning as the market weighed elevator closures in North Dakota due to excessive snowfall against recession worries.
Syria has imported over 18.4 million bushels of wheat from Russia since Russia’s Ukrainian invasion began in late February 2022, specifically from the illegally annexed Black Sea region of Crimea. Since Western sanctions had previously targeted Syria before the war (and obviously Russia following the invasion), both countries have used a “ghost fleet” to build economic ties with one another over the past 10 months.
A decade-long civil war and drought has left Syria’s wheat harvests in shambles in recent years, turning a country which once produced an exportable supply of wheat into a wheat importer. Syria has turned almost exclusively to Russia for its wheat purchases in the past decade, strengthening the ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has been condemned by the U.S. for the Syrian government’s sanctioned violence against Syrian rebels.
Ukrainian government officials contend that some of the wheat exported to Syria was stolen from Ukrainian farmers and commercial storage facilities in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian officials insist that Ukrainian farmers are being paid for their harvests, despite Ukrainian protests.
Weather
Only six more days until Christmas!!! Snow is forecasted over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. Temperatures are likely to dip to subzero levels in the Northern Plains today as well, so please stay safe and warm out there today!
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are trending much cooler than usual for the continental U.S. west of the Rocky Mountains through early next week. Chances for precipitation during that time are leaning above average for the Northern Plains while the Central and Southern Plains as well as the Eastern Corn Belt are forecast to be dry in the days following Christmas.
The temperature trends in the 8-10-day outlook will continue to warm up across the country as the New Year approaches. Plus, chances for moisture are likely to remain slightly above to near normal for the Northern Plains during that time for most of the country except for the Southern Plains and Southwest, where dry weather will likely persist.
Financials
S&P 500 futures inched up 0.3% this morning to $3,890.75 at last glance as markets geared up to bounce back from last week’s losses on growing recession worries. Some of the relief helped pull the dollar lower this morning, which bodes well for commodity export prospects in today’s trading session.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
This one is a few weeks old, but still worth a read! I’ve referenced it several times and recommended it to farmers looking to use up cash over the past couple weeks, so I’m bringing it back: Bryce Knorr recommends hedging your 2023 fuel needs now – to lock in 2023 profits and maximize 2022 tax strategies.
Executive editor Mike Wilson evaluates Ukraine’s agricultural losses in its ongoing war with Russia.
Naomi Blohm explains why sorghum acres may take off next spring.
Indiana Farmer Kyle Stackhouse is having a hard time finding the best choice for 2023 seeds.
AgMarket.Net’s Matt Bennett explains why 2022 profits could be a problem in 2023.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit is back in Coralville, Iowa and we have a packed speaker lineup – we hope you’ll join us for all the fun!
My latest E-corn-omics column takes a deep dive into all the recent happenings in the fertilizer markets.
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 12/19/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5075
6.46
6.4975
-0.0325
-0.50%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.5125
6.465
6.5
-0.035
-0.54%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.46
6.4125
6.4475
-0.035
-0.54%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.085
6.055
6.085
-0.0175
-0.29%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.97
5.9325
5.9625
-0.0125
-0.21%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.04
6.0175
6.0175
-0.0375
-0.62%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.075
#N/A
6.09
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.055
6.055
6.055
-0.025
-0.41%
SEP ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
5.7
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.76
14.6075
14.7475
-0.0525
-0.35%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.7875
14.64
14.775
-0.0625
-0.42%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.8125
14.675
14.81
-0.06
-0.40%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.8425
14.7025
14.8325
-0.0625
-0.42%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.62
14.51
14.62
-0.05
-0.34%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.125
14.0275
14.12
-0.035
-0.25%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.8675
13.785
13.855
-0.0375
-0.27%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.89
13.825
13.88
-0.0375
-0.27%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.82
13.75
13.8075
-0.0375
-0.27%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.73
13.73
13.73
-0.085
-0.62%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.445
#N/A
13.8275
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
64.2
62.81
64.12
0.76
1.20%
MAR ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
63.22
61.92
63.18
0.72
1.15%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
461
449.6
454.6
-8.4
-1.81%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
458.1
446.6
451.4
-8.8
-1.91%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
450.1
439.2
444.3
-8
-1.77%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
445.7
434.9
439.9
-7.4
-1.65%
AUG ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
434.4
428.3
433.3
-6
-1.37%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.5975
7.49
7.5625
0.0275
0.36%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.6775
7.575
7.64
0.03
0.39%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.725
7.62
7.6875
0.0325
0.42%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.785
7.6825
7.75
0.0375
0.49%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9025
7.8075
7.865
0.04
0.51%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9575
7.88
7.93
0.0525
0.67%
AY2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
7.88
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.49
8.37
8.4325
-0.0075
-0.09%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.4225
8.325
8.3775
-0.0025
-0.03%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.3475
8.2525
8.305
-0.0125
-0.15%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.305
8.295
8.295
-0.0375
-0.45%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.3475
8.3475
8.3475
-0.03
-0.36%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.375
#N/A
8.3525
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.3
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1225
9.06
9.12
0.025
0.27%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.07
9.025
9.07
0.0225
0.25%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.0375
9
9
-0.025
-0.28%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.89
8.89
8.89
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.935
#N/A
8.9425
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.97
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
10.705
0
0.00%
DEC ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
104.625
104.15
104.555
-0.106
-0.10%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
75.69
73.81
74.96
0.67
0.90%
FE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
75.94
74.03
75.16
0.7
0.94%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.1712
3.1173
3.1496
0.0297
0.95%
FEB ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.1267
3.0702
3.1042
0.0296
0.96%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.1718
2.1312
2.1535
0.0212
0.99%
FEB ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.182
2.1439
2.1664
0.0205
0.96%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
183.775
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
184.7
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
155.05
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
155.775
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
85.775
0
0.00%
APR ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
92.725
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.5
#N/A
20.5
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.24
19.19
19.21
-0.03
-0.16%
FEB ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.01
#N/A
19.07
0
0.00%
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