Afternoon report: Corn and soybeans shift higher in Friday’s session, with wheat back in the red
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Friday. Corn and soybeans moved moderately higher, erasing some of the steep losses incurred earlier this week. Wheat prices continued to slide lower, however, with most contracts down another 1.25% today.
Most of the Midwest and Plains will see at least some measurable rainfall between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Northern Iowa and Minnesota are likely to gather the largest amounts during that time. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook anticipates seasonally wet weather returning to the Plains and western Corn Belt between July 1 and July 7, with abundant warmer-than-normal conditions likely across most of the central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow mounted a substantial comeback attempt, jumping 675 points higher in afternoon trading to 31,352, although investors also carefully considered a University of Michigan survey that showed consumer sentiment at record lows. Energy futures were also in the green, with crude oil up nearly 3% to $107 per barrel this afternoon. Gasoline also climbed 3% higher, with diesel rising around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were significant net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-30,000), soybeans (-26,000), soymeal (-5,000), soyoil (-10,500) and CBOT wheat (-11,000).
Corn
Corn prices made some modest inroads Friday after a round of bargain buying and short-covering. July futures picked up 2.75 cents to $7.4950, while September futures rose 15.75 cents to $6.8250.
Corn basis bids showed some variability in either direction on Friday, moving as much as 10 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and as much as 11 cents lower at an Ohio elevator today.
Old crop corn sales came in at 26.5 million bushels for the week ending June 16. New crop sales accounted for another 14.1 million bushels, for a total of 40.6 million bushels. That was toward the higher end of trade estimates, which ranged between 19.7 million and 47.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still moderately behind last year’s pace, with 1.977 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments fell 26% below the prior four-week average to 45.2 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan and Colombia were the top five destinations.
Next Thursday’s planted acres and quarterly stocks updates from USDA is one of the agency’s most highly anticipated reports of the entire year. “Traditionally the price reaction on this report day can be dramatic; potentially leaving prices nearly limit up or limit down depending on the information received,” according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Blohm looked into three possible scenarios in particular in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reports that the country’s corn quality ratings spilled three points lower from a week ago, with 84% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through June 20. France is Europe’s top grain producer.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 406,936 contracts, tracking 32% lower than Thursday’s final count of 600,962.
Soybeans
Soybean prices followed some other commodities higher (including corn and crude oil), capturing double-digit gains in the ensuing round of technical buying. July futures rose 15.75 cents to $16.09, with August futures up 10.5 cents to $15.25.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak on Friday after dropping 4 to 8 cents lower across four Midwestern locations today.
Old crop soybean sales fell to a marketing-year low of 1.1 million bushels last week. New crop sales added another 9.7 million bushels, for a total of 10.8 million bushels. That was toward the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 1.8 million and 29.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, reaching 1.882 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments inched 1% lower than the prior four-week average to 18.2 million bushels. Mexico, Egypt, China, Germany and Pakistan were the top five destinations.
China’s national grain trade center announced today it will auction 18.4 million bushels of its imported soybean reserves on July 1. The country has offered a flurry of similarly sized sales throughout 2022 in an effort to boost supplies and tamp down high prices.
Want a sneak peek at what fellow farmers are facing across the central U.S. to the start of the 2022 crop season? Be sure to tune into Feedback from the Field, which we update regularly with anecdotes from all around farm country. Click here to learn more and find out how you can participate.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 200,096 contracts, moving well below Thursday’s final count of 316,550.
Wheat
Wheat prices incurred double-digit losses again today, as harvest progress across the Northern Hemisphere continues to be the overriding factor for now. July Chicago SRW futures faded 13.25 cents to $9.24, July Kansas City HRW futures dropped 12 cents to $9.93, and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 12.25 cents to $10.6825.
Wheat export sales reached 17.6 million bushels last week. That exceeded the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 5.5 million and 14.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the young 2022/23 marketing year are trending slightly below last year’s pace so far, with 33.7 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments made it to 12.4 million bushels last week. The Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, Guatemala and Jamaica were the top five destinations.
FranceAgriMer once again trimmed its quality ratings for the country’s soft-wheat crop, with 64% now rated in good-to-excellent condition (down a point from last week). Harvest is beginning a bit earlier than normal, with 2% complete through June 20.
If it’s been a few days since you’ve visited FarmFutures.com, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you might have missed” is a quick way to catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest batch of content includes an update on Ukrainian port damages, an unusual source of income that helped an Iowa farmer purchase 250 acres of land and more. Click here to get started.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 98,004 CBOT contracts, falling slightly below Thursday’s final count of 105,766.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Jul
762.25
735
750.25
2.75
22-Sep
684.5
661.25
682.75
15.75
Soybeans
22-Jul
1620.5
1583
1610.75
15.75
22-Sep
1454.25
1422.25
1445.75
10.5
Soymeal $/ton
22-Aug
413.9
403.7
411.4
6.8
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Aug
67.43
64.84
66.93
1.29
Wheat $/bushel
22-Jul
962.5
921.75
923.75
-13.25
22-Sep
973
934.25
936.5
-12.25
KC Wheat
22-Jul
1022
991.75
992.5
-12
22-Sep
1027.5
997.25
998.25
-12.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Jul
1092.25
1067.75
1070.75
-12.25
22-Sep
1091.5
1067.5
1070.5
-9
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Jun
136.2
135.325
135.6
0.35
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
176.725
174.6
174.9
-1.95
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Aug
107.55
103.95
106.825
3.15
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Jul
108.58
103.64
107.27
3
Diesel
22-Jul
4.3937
4.3023
4.3588
0.0209
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Jul
3.8937
3.7296
3.8775
0.1119
Natural Gas
22-Aug
6.407
6.062
6.265
-0.018
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
104.28
103.74
103.96
-0.232
Gold $/ounce
22-Jul
1829
1814.6
1825.7
0
Copper
22-Jun
3.773
3.7
3.7
-0.0585
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 06/24)
DAP Tampa-index
1,090.0
0
DAP-New Orleans
876.3
-11.02
Urea-New Orleans
526.4
41.34
Urea-Middle East
682.5
47.5
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
576.0
-25.35
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