Morning report: Corn and soy both jump back up following increased forecasts for rain in South America. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
*Prices as of 6:55 am CST.
Corn
Corn futures were mixed overnight, but nearby futures edged $0.01-$0.02/bushel higher to $6.45-$6.50/bushel on a round of bargain buying following yesterday’s losses. Improving rain prospects for Argentina and ongoing showers in Brazil continued to take a bite out of deferred months contracts, sending those futures prices $0.01/bushel lower.
But any further price movement was likely limited by extensive drought damage already incurred by Argentina this year, even though more rains are expected in Argentina and Brazil in the coming days.
“Argentina’s rainfall outlook has improved,” an unnamed agricultural analyst told Reuters. “The outlook is for some more improvement to occur, but additional follow up rainfall will be imperative to induce a true trend change.”
Soybeans
Soybean prices clawed back some of yesterday’s losses, rising $0.01-$0.06/bushel overnight following yesterday’s USDA announcement of a 4.8-million-bushel soybean order from an unknown buyer.
Worries about Argentina’s soy crop kept rally hopes alive in the soymeal market, which in turn trickled over into the greater soybean complex as gains. Gains were capped by forecasts calling for more rain in Brazil over the next two weeks, which will likely bode favorably for its bumper soybean crop expected to be harvested in the coming months.
Wheat
Chicago wheat prices dipped a penny lower overnight as the Ukrainian government ensured energy supplies to grain export loading facilities, but Kansas City and Minneapolis futures rose $0.05-$0.08/bushel after Taiwan tendered a 2-million-bushel order overnight for dark northern spring, hard red winter, and white wheat.
Overnight, the Ukrainian government requested its agriculture ministry to identify key grain and oilseed storage and processing facilities. This is likely the first stage of the Ukrainian government ensuring adequate energy supplies for export facilities so that Ukraine can continue exporting its grain supplies amid ongoing Russian strikes against the Ukrainian energy grid.
The government resolution sought to identify facilities in the “food processing industry and agriculture complex, (and in the) operation of irrigation systems and canals” as those companies are expected to receive the highest priority of energy availability going forward.
Ukraine’s grain traders’ union, UGA, requested the government’s help in procuring stable energy supplies last week, citing 10 million metric tonnes of grain storage has already been lost due to the Russian invasion and that lower yields and acreage as a result of the Russian conflict will further jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to generate export revenues if the energy blackouts continue.
Weather
Happy last day of fall – hope your vitamin D stockpiles are ready for tomorrow’s winter solstice and the season’s first major storm event! Only five more days until Christmas!!!
Skies will clear over the Heartland today, though temperatures will remain frigid in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, according to NOAA’s short-term forecasts. A chance of snow remains likely in North Dakota and eastern parts of South Dakota today, though accumulation will likely be light.
A high-pressure system currently situated over the Heartland will be pushed out by a low-pressure system beginning tomorrow, which will usher in a major cross-country winter storm system featuring strong wind gusts, heavy snowfall for the Great Lakes Region, and Arctic temperatures that will likely last from Wednesday through at least Friday.
NOAA’s 6-10-day forecasts are trending cooler than usual for the continental U.S. west of the Rocky Mountains through the middle of next week. Chances for precipitation during that time are leaning above average for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains while the Southern Plains as well as the Eastern Corn Belt are forecast to be dry in the days following Christmas.
But we will finally get a break from winter weather as the new year begins. The temperature trends in the 8-10-day outlook are warming up across the country as the New Year approaches. Plus, chances for moisture are trending above average across the entire continental U.S., except for the Southern Plains, where chances for near normal precipitation will persist during the first couple days of 2023.
Financials
S&P 500 futures wobbled 0.08% lower this morning to $,3842.25. Wall Street futures were mixed this morning after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This may not seem significant following Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank rate hikes last week.
But Japan has been a holdout on raising interest rates, opting for loose monetary policy measures (i.e. keeping interest rates low) as global inflationary pressures have mounted. U.S. stock indices attempted to claw back yesterday’s losses during the overnight trading session, but Japan’s move took a bite out of Wall Street’s momentum this morning.
What else I’m reading this morning on our website, FarmFutures.com:
Is an early Christmas present on the way for U.S. corn exporters?! Agriculture Secretary Vilsack and Trade Representative Tai shared that a recent meeting with Mexican delegation could lead to a biotech corn dispute breakthrough.
Water Street Solutions’ Darren Frye encourages growers to run the numbers for land, equipment, buildings, and bin upgrades.
This one is a few weeks old, but still worth a read! I’ve referenced it several times and recommended it to farmers looking to use up cash over the past couple weeks, so I’m bringing it back: Bryce Knorr recommends hedging your 2023 fuel needs now – to lock in 2023 profits and maximize 2022 tax strategies.
Executive editor Mike Wilson evaluates Ukraine’s agricultural losses in its ongoing war with Russia.
Naomi Blohm explains why sorghum acres may take off next spring.
The 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit is back in Coralville, Iowa and we have a packed speaker lineup – we hope you’ll join us for all the fun!
Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 12/20/2022
Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change
MAR ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.495
6.4675
6.49
0.0175
0.27%
MAY ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4975
6.475
6.495
0.015
0.23%
JUL ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.4475
6.4225
6.445
0.015
0.23%
SEP ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
6.08
6.06
6.07
-0.0025
-0.04%
DEC ’23 CORN
$ / BSH
5.96
5.935
5.945
-0.0075
-0.13%
AR2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.0375
6.02
6.025
-0.01
-0.17%
AY2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.07
6.07
6.07
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
6.06
6.06
6.06
-0.0025
-0.04%
SEP ’24 CORN
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
5.6975
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.68
14.6025
14.645
0.0375
0.26%
MAR ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.705
14.6225
14.6625
0.0275
0.19%
MAY ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.7375
14.6575
14.7
0.0275
0.19%
JUL ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.77
14.6925
14.73
0.025
0.17%
AUG ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.565
14.505
14.54
0.0275
0.19%
SEP ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
14.0575
14.03
14.0425
0.01
0.07%
NOV ’23 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.85
13.8025
13.8125
0.0025
0.02%
AN2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.845
13.835
13.845
0.005
0.04%
AR2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.775
13.775
13.775
0.0025
0.02%
AY2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
13.74
13.74
13.74
0
0.00%
UL2 ’24 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
13.75
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
64.71
63.8
64.43
0.02
0.03%
MAR ’23 SOYBEAN OIL
$ / LB
63.76
62.75
63.39
-0.02
-0.03%
JAN ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
453.4
449.2
451.4
2.3
0.51%
MAR ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
449.9
446.1
448.2
2.1
0.47%
MAY ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
442.5
439.5
441.1
1.6
0.36%
JUL ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
437.9
435.5
436.6
1.4
0.32%
AUG ’23 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
431.2
429.4
430
1.3
0.30%
MAR ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.5375
7.4475
7.4725
-0.0125
-0.17%
MAY ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.62
7.53
7.555
-0.0125
-0.17%
JUL ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.6625
7.5775
7.6
-0.0175
-0.23%
SEP ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.7225
7.65
7.67
-0.015
-0.20%
DEC ’23 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.8375
7.7625
7.775
-0.03
-0.38%
AR2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
7.9075
7.8225
7.8475
-0.03
-0.38%
AY2 ’24 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
7.88
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.54
8.4425
8.49
0.055
0.65%
MAY ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.48
8.3975
8.42
0.045
0.54%
JUL ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.405
8.3375
8.355
0.045
0.54%
SEP ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.41
8.3675
8.3675
0.0375
0.45%
DEC ’23 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.4125
8.41
8.4125
0.035
0.42%
AR2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
8.4375
#N/A
8.36
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.305
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.18
9.1
9.13
0.0475
0.52%
MAY ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.1125
9.07
9.0775
0.0525
0.58%
JUL ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
9.0625
9.045
9.0625
0.065
0.72%
SEP ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.9325
#N/A
8.865
0
0.00%
DEC ’23 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
8.9775
#N/A
8.915
0
0.00%
AR2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
8.9375
0
0.00%
AY2 ’24 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH
0
#N/A
0
0
0.00%
MAR ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
104.415
103.515
103.735
-0.609
-0.58%
JA ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
76.2
74.84
76.19
1
1.33%
FE ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL
76.53
74.69
75.74
0.36
0.48%
JAN ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.1042
3.02
3.0771
0.0236
0.77%
FEB ’23 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
3.0648
2.9835
3.0391
0.0212
0.70%
JAN ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.1976
2.1594
2.184
0.0064
0.29%
FEB ’23 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.2101
2.1709
2.1947
0.0041
0.19%
JAN ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
182.1
0
0.00%
MAR ’23 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
183.8
0
0.00%
DE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
155.275
0
0.00%
FE ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
156.05
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
85.7
0
0.00%
APR ’23 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
93
0
0.00%
DEC ’22 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
20.51
#N/A
20.53
0
0.00%
JAN ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
19.07
19.07
19.07
0
0.00%
FEB ’23 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
18.85
#N/A
18.87
0
0.00%
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