Afternoon report: Corn prices little-changed in Monday’s session
Grain prices were mixed to start the week as traders assessed the latest weather forecasts and production trends both in the U.S. and overseas. Soybeans saw the most upside, with lingering questions about domestic production potential leading to double-digit gains. Corn prices were steady to slightly higher. Wheat prices faded 2.25% to 3.5% lower, in contrast, as Ukrainian exports are improving and as Russia looks like it has a bin-busting crop this season.
Rains will be hit or miss across the central U.S. later this week. Few areas will receive more than 0.25″ between Tuesday and Friday, however, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts widespread hot, dry weather for the Midwest and Plains between September 26 and October 2.
On Wall St., the Dow eased 25 points lower in afternoon trading to 30,796 as investors anxiously await the next Federal Reserve meeting to be held later this week. The Fed is likely to crank its benchmark rate another 75 points higher in an attempt to slow inflation. Energy futures made moderate to large inroads today. Crude oil was up around 0.5% to $85 per barrel. Diesel jumped 4% higher, while gasoline firmed 1.75%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+4,000) and CBOT wheat (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000), soybeans (-3,000) and soymeal (-3,500).
Corn
Corn priceswavered a bit in a sometimes choppy session today but ultimately finished steady to slightly higher by the close. December futures picked up 0.75 cents to $6.78, while March futures held steady at $6.83.
Corn basis bids were mixed across the Midwest on Monday after moving as much as 12 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal and as much as 30 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant today.
Corn export inspections tracked moderately above the prior week’s total, moving to 21.6 million bushels. That was toward the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 14.8 million and 31.5 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, China, Venezuela and Jamaica were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the young 2022/23 marketing year are off to a better start than a year ago, with 45.2 million bushels over the first half of September.
Ahead of the next USDA crop progress report, out Monday afternoon, analysts expect to see stable corn ratings for the week ending September 18, with 53% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. Harvest is expected to move from 5% complete a week ago to 10% through Sunday.
USDA’s WASDE report always provide answers, but grain market analyst Bryce Knorr argues that the September report “likely raised even more questions for traders to ponder heading into an uncertain harvest.” Knorr digs into historical data and looks at past trends in the latest Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
European Union crop reporting service MARS noted that recent rains arrived too late to reverse damage from drought-stressed fields across a wide swath of the continent. MARS estimates that per-acre yields are at 95.02 bpa, which is 19% below the prior five-year average.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 146,555 contracts, falling moderately below Friday’s final count of 177,160.
Soybeans
Soybean prices rose more than 0.75% on Monday after a solid round of export inspection data and amid rising concerns about U.S. production potential if weather forecasts continue to call for hot, dry conditions. November futures added 13 cents to $14.6150, with January futures up 12.25 cents to $14.6750.
Soybean basis bids were steady to weak across the central U.S. on Monday after tumbling 50 cents lower at an Indiana processor and sliding 2 to 25 cents lower at four other Midwestern locations to start the week.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.0 million bushels of soybeans to China during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Soybean export inspections improved to 19.1 million bushels last week. That tally was also on the upper end of trade estimates, which ranged between 12.9 million and 23.9 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are running ahead of last year’s pace so far, with 33.5 million bushels.
Prior to the next crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show stable soybean ratings, with 56% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through September 18. USDA may also show its first set of harvest data – analysts expect to see progress at 5% (individual trade guesses ranged between 2% and 6%).
Farmers in Brazil’s top production state of Mato Grosso has begun to plant their 2022/23 soybean crop on irrigated acres, while dryland farmers have mostly opted to wait for more rains before beginning fieldwork. The AgRural consultancy estimates that total Brazilian plantings could reach 105.5 million acres and expects a record production of 5.456 billion bushels.
How are your crops looking at the moment? Have you started harvest yet? Click this link to take the survey and share updates about your farm’s crop development. Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland regularly reviews and uploads results to the FFTF Google MyMap, so farmers can peer anecdotes from around the country.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 132,868 contracts, inching fractionally above Friday’s final count of 132,332.
Wheat
Wheat prices suffered a significant setback on Monday as the focus shifted back to improved Ukrainian exports and a massive Russian crop. The ensuing round of technical selling led to double-digit losses, despite a robust round of grain export inspection data released this morning. December Chicago SRW futures lost 30.5 cents to $8.2925, December Kansas City HRW futures fell 27.75 cents to $9.0750, and December MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 20.75 cents to $9.18.
Wheat export inspections improved to 29.0 million bushels last week. That was on the higher end of trade guesses, which ranged between 14.7 million and 34.9 million bushels. China, Japan, Yemen, Mexico and Ethiopia were the top five destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still slightly below last year’s pace, however, with 265.0 million bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, analyst think the agency will show winter wheat plantings move from 10% a week ago up to 20% through Sunday. Spring wheat harvest progress is expected to move from 85% a week ago up to 92%.
Russian consultancy IKAR raised its forecast for the country’s 2022 wheat production by another 2.1% to 3.638 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter and will send roughly half of that total overseas following harvest.
Saudi Arabia reported that it has purchased approximately 20.4 million bushels of wheat from optional origins in an international tender that recently closed. The grain is comprised of multiple consignments that will be shipped between November and February.
Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase 11.8 million bushels of wheat that closes a week from today. The grain is for rapid shipment beginning in October. The country is dealing from the fallout of historic floods that caused damage to crops, livestock, infrastructure and homes totaling $30 billion.
Iraq is also expected to announce an international tender to purchase 11.8 million bushels of wheat from optional origins. Additional details were not immediately available.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 58,705 CBOT contracts, sliding slightly below Friday’s final count of 67,681.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Dec
680
668.25
678.25
0.75
23-Mar
686
674
683.5
0
Soybeans
22-Nov
1465.75
1438.25
1461.25
13
23-Jan
1472
1444.75
1467.5
12.25
Soymeal $/ton
22-Dec
430.8
420.2
429.3
7.2
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Dec
66.39
64.67
65.16
-0.65
Wheat $/bushel
22-Dec
861.25
819.25
830.5
-30.5
23-Mar
875
835.25
846.5
-31
KC Wheat
22-Dec
934
896.25
909.75
-27.75
23-Mar
933
895.75
908
-29
MPLS Wheat
22-Dec
938
906.5
918.25
-20.75
23-Mar
941
915
926.25
-21.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
146.275
145.55
145.725
0.225
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Oct
182.675
180.825
182.125
0.875
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Dec
88.725
87.325
88.05
0.075
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Oct
86.22
82.1
85.74
0.63
Diesel
22-Oct
3.324
3.1304
3.3196
0.1471
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Oct
2.4709
2.3384
2.4681
0.0524
Natural Gas
22-Nov
7.961
7.455
7.85
0.039
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
110.08
109.54
110.045
0.309
Gold $/ounce
22-Oct
1678
1657.1
1667.8
-3.9
Copper
22-Sep
3.555
3.515
3.549
-0.012
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 09/16)
DAP Tampa-index
765.0
-52.5
DAP-New Orleans
837.8
-5.51
Urea-New Orleans
734.1
25.9
Urea-Middle East
865.0
-20
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
556.7
16.53
Preliminary volume estimates were for 67,681 CBOT contracts, easing 13% below Thursday’s final count of 7Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!
