CHARLEY MARTINEZ
KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE
Ahead of next week’s USDA March Intentions report, traders are positioning for a notable shift in planted acreage. Corn acreage is expected to come in at 94.37 million acres, according to market expectations, which would represent a 4.4 million‐acre decline from last year if realized. Cotton intentions are also projected slightly lower, with a Reuters analyst survey calling for 9.229 million acres, modestly below last year’s level. Wheat acreage estimates will be released Tuesday, with traders looking for 44.79 million acres, down about 544,000 acres from a year ago.
In related policy news, the EPA released its finalized Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 this morning. Biomass based diesel volumes were set at 8.86 billion RINs for 2026 and 8.95 billion RINs for 2027, both well above the previously proposed levels of 7.12 billion and 7.5 billion RINs, respectively. After accounting for reallocated Small Refinery Exemptions, the effective totals rise to 9.07 billion RINs for 2026 and 9.20 billion RINs for 2027. The EPA also announced a policy change beginning in 2028, under which foreign fuels and feedstocks will receive only 50% of the RIN value, compared to equal treatment under the current proposal, an adjustment with potential implications for domestic biofuel demand.
Recent trends in average fuel prices (source: AAA Fuel Prices) across regular, mid‐grade, premium gasoline, diesel, and E85, highlighting both short‐term stability and significant longer‐term increases. Current average prices are higher this week, with regular gasoline at $3.98 per gallon, mid‐grade at $4.50, premium at $4.87, diesel at $5.38, and E85 at $3.15, indicating little day‐to‐day movement. Compared to one week ago, prices are modestly higher across all fuel types, while the month‐ago comparison shows a sharp increase, particularly for gasoline and diesel. For example, regular gasoline is up $1.00 per gallon from a month ago, and diesel has risen by more than $1.60 per gallon. Relative to one year ago, prices are also notably higher for all fuels, underscoring sustained upward pressure on energy costs.
Corn
Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened from last week at West, Northwest, West-Central, North-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 30 cents under to 22 cents over, with an average of 6 cents over with the May futures at elevators and barge points. Ethanol production for the week ending March 20th was 1.116 million barrels, up 23,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 27.170 million barrels, up 763,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Cash prices ranged from $4.30 to $5.02 at elevators and barge points. On Friday, September 2026 corn futures closed at $4.76, which is down 2 cents compared to last week. For the week, September 2026 corn futures traded between $4.69 and $4.85.
For the week of March 13-19, 2026, there were net sales 1,217,800 MT for 2025/2026, up 4% from the previous week, but down 10% from the prior 4-week average. Total net sales of 135,000 MT for 2026/2027 were for Japan. Exports of 1,678,200 MT were down 4% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. This week new crop cash contracts ranged from $4.35 to $4.95 at elevators and barge points. December corn futures closed at $4.90, unchanged from last week.
Soybeans
Across Tennessee average soybean basis strengthened compared to last week at West, Northwest, North-Central, West-Central, and Mississippi River elevators and barge points. Average basis ranged from 35 under to 26 over the May futures contract, with an average basis at the end of the week of 3 cents under. Cash soybean prices at elevators and barge points ranged from $11.20 to $11.97. September 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.44, up 1 cent compared to last week. For the week,
For the week of March 13-19, 2026, there were net sales of 668,900 MT for 2025/2026 were up 124% from the previous week and up 89% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 27,000 MT for 2026/2027 were reported for unknown destinations (25,000 MT) and Taiwan (2,000 MT). Exports of 1,344,200 MT were up 48% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to China (665,000 MT), Germany (201,500 MT), Egypt (184,000 MT), Mexico (75,300 MT), and Japan (63,100 MT). November 2026 soybean futures closed at $11.44, up 3 cents compared to last week.
Cotton
North Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for March 27th were up compared to last week. Prices were 66.18 cents/lb (41-4- 34), and 70.93 cents/lb (31-3-35), which made both up .51 cents compared to last week’s prices.
For the week March 13-19, 2026, there was a total net sales of Upland totaling 202,400 RB for 2025/2026 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 5% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 27,000 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Peru (12,800 RB), Honduras (10,000 RB), Thailand (2,600 RB), Japan (1,300 RB), and Guatemala (300 RB). Exports of 400,600 RB (a marketing-year high) were up 46% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (164,100 RB), Pakistan (60,500 RB), Bangladesh (40,300 RB), India (27,400 RB), and Turkey (26,600 RB). For the week, May 2026 cotton futures closed at 69.46 cents, up 2.15 cents compared to last week. December 2026 cotton futures closed at 74.02 cents, up 2.06 cents compared to last week. ∆
CHARLEY MARTINEZ
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE
The post Traders Are Positioning For A Notable Shift In Planted Acreage appeared first on Soybean South.
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