Afternoon report: Wheat prices also make substantial inroads in Thursday’s session
Corn and soybeans grabbed double-digit gains on Thursday after forecasts for excessively hot conditions through the first part of August spurred another round of technical buying today. Corn prices were up around 2.5%, with soybeans tracking around 2.25% higher. Wheat also saw solid gains today amid concerns that Black Sea grain shipments won’t resume as quickly as previously anticipated.
Ample rains will fall on parts of the lower Midwest and Mid-South between Friday and Monday, with most of these areas set to gather another 2″ to 4″ during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts below-average precipitation for the Corn Belt between August 4 and August 10, with much warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the entire central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 352 points in afternoon trading to 32,549 on investor confidence that the Federal Reserve is taking adequate measures to tamp down inflation. Energy futures trended moderately lower, with gasoline dropping 0.5% this afternoon to fall back below $97 per barrel. Diesel dropped 1%, with gasoline down around 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed fractionally.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+1,000), soybeans (+9,500), soymeal (+2,000) and soyoil (+3,500) contracts but were net sellers of CBOT wheat (-6,500).
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Corn
Corn prices experienced a second day of technical buying as traders remain focused on the hot, dry forecasts expected in the Midwest and Plains over at least the next two weeks. September futures rose 14.5 cents to $6.1475, with December futures up 15.75 cents to $6.1875.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady but did shift 3 to 5 cents lower at three Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Old and new crop corn exports only totaled 13.5 million bushels last week. That was on the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 7.9 million and 36.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year are still moderately trailing last year’s pace after reaching 2.181 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments were more robust, with 34.2 million bushels, although that was still 19% below the prior four-week average. Mexico, China, Japan, Guatemala and Colombia were the top five destinations.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 205,358 contracts, shifting slightly below Wednesday’s final count of 219,714.
Soybeans
Soybean prices saw another round of double-digit gains on Thursday, although they weren’t quite as robust as Wednesday’s bump. Still, prices trended more than 2% higher after another round of weather-related technical buying today. August futures climbed 34.25 cents to $16.13, with September futures up 32.25 cents to $14.5675.
Soybean basis bids sank 15 to 20 cents lower at two Midwestern processors and fell 5 to 6 cents across three other locations on Thursday.
Old crop soybean sales saw a net reduction of 2.2 million bushels, while new crop sales jumped to 27.5 million bushels, for a net total of 25.3 million bushels last week. That was on the upper end of trade guesses, which came in as high as 29.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2021/22 marketing year remain moderately below last year’s pace, with 1.961 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments slid 14% below the prior four-week average to 14.5 mil-lion bushels. Mexico, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Egypt and Japan were the top five destinations.
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Preliminary volume estimates were for 166,375 contracts, falling moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 206,152.
Wheat
Wheat prices attracted a round of technical buying today amid lingering doubts about Ukraine’s true production and export capacity. Spillover strength from corn and soybeans lent additional support. September Chicago SRW futures gained 26.25 cents to $8.1650, September Kansas City HRW futures rose 27.25 cents to $8.89, and September MGEX spring wheat futures added 18.75 cents to $9.2875.
Wheat export sales fell 29% below the prior four-week average to 15.1 million bushels. That was near the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 23.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are nearly 20% below last year’s pace so far, with 81.0 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments jumped 47% above the prior four-week average to 12.7 million bushels. Mexico, the Philippines, Colombia, Japan and Morocco were the top five destinations.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA says the 2022 wheat harvest has reached 293.9 million bushels so far, with average yields of 52.3 bushels per acre. Total grain exports are expected to fall to 30 million metric tons in 2022/23, due largely to the ongoing Russian invasion.
Pakistan purchased around 6.8 million bushels of wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier this week. Offers came from several countries, including Bulgaria, France, Romania, Russia and Ukraine. The grain is for shipment in September.
Bangladesh purchased 1.8 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier in July. The grain is for shipment 40 days after contracts were signed.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 63,331 CBOT contracts, trending slightly lower than Wednesday’s final count of 72,990.
Settlement Prices for Key Commodities
High
Low
Last
Change
Corn $/bushel
22-Sep
618
601.25
615
14.5
22-Dec
621.75
603.75
619
15.75
Soybeans
22-Sep
1462.75
1427.5
1457
32.25
22-Dec
1446.75
1412.5
1440.5
29
Soymeal $/ton
22-Sep
448.6
438.8
443.1
-3.4
Soyoil cents/lb
22-Sep
64.39
59.9
64
3.95
Wheat $/bushel
22-Sep
824.25
786.25
817
26.25
22-Dec
842
806
835.25
26.75
KC Wheat
22-Sep
894.75
860
889.75
27.25
22-Dec
901
867.25
896.5
25.5
MPLS Wheat
22-Sep
934.25
909
928
18.75
22-Dec
946.75
920
940.25
17.25
Live Cattle cents/lb
22-Aug
137.15
136
136.2
-0.6
Feeder Cattle cents/lb
22-Sep
181.55
180.025
180.05
-1.8
Lean Hogs cents/lb
22-Oct
97.875
95.975
96.15
-0.3
Crude Oil $/barrel
*Energy prices may not represent final settlements
22-Sep
99.84
96.04
96.53
-0.73
Diesel
22-Aug
3.8063
3.64
3.6847
-0.0326
Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon
22-Aug
3.4779
3.3119
3.44
0.0112
Natural Gas
22-Oct
8.8
8.095
8.101
-0.425
U.S. Dollar Index
22-Sep
106.85
105.925
106.33
-0.001
Gold $/ounce
22-Sep
1758
1736.5
1749.2
30.1
Copper
22-Aug
3.507
3.4685
3.4745
0.043
Fertilizer Swaps
(as of 07/15)
DAP Tampa-index
916.5
-8.5
DAP-New Orleans
839.4
-31.42
Urea-New Orleans
559.4
-20.94
Urea-Middle East
670.0
-60
Urea-Black Sea
585.0
35
UAN (32%) New Orleans
448.1
-70
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